EM Credit Weekly - Resilience in Earnings

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Recap - EM credit tightened and issuance held up despite Middle East uncertainty, with Asia supported by technicals, divergence across Africa, and active issuance among LATAM electricity generators alongside mixed macro signals.
• Ahead - A quieter earnings backdrop in Asia may support primary issuance, contingent on Middle East developments, while key political risk in Romania and inflation dynamics in Mexico anchor the week. Activity in LATAM remains focused on earnings and power-related issuance.
• Primary – Primary issuance was broadly steady week-on-week, with LATAM leading volumes and pricing strength, while Asia and CEEMEA (focus on Kazakhstan) saw modestly softer activity and more mixed pricing outcomes.
• In Focus - EM credit fundamentals remain strong with spreads having recovered to pre-conflict levels and resilient results across regions, despite Middle East risks. In Asia and the GCC, banks and insurers posted solid numbers, while commodity support continued to underpin African credits, though current conditions may prove a peak if the conflict persists.
• Sovereigns mentioned: CHINA, PTTTB, SLOVAK, SERBIA, ROMANI, LITHUN, UAE, ANGOL, KENINT, GHANA, SOAF, BOLIVI, COLOM, MEX, ECUA
• Corporates mentioned: ADSEZ, SANLTD, ICBPIJ, HYUELE, LGCHM, LGENSO, VEDLN, RILIN, KEBHNB, FWDGHD, AIA, PINGIN, RGBPM, WOORIB, BBNIIJ, SKONKR, HIGHWY, CEZCP, CESDRA, MILPW, PEOPW, MBKPW, BAINAT, KZTGKZ, KAPKZ, SOIAZ, YKBNK, SIBCAB, SABIC, ALDAR, DUBAEE, MASQUH, DIBUH, EBIUH, QATIQD, FMCN, EDVLN, SEPLLN, TLWLN, SGLSJ, GENGAT, BANMEX, PEMEX, SUZANO, VALEBZ, COLBUN, TELVIS, LIVEPL, GGBRBZ, COXAGB, ORBIA, PETRPE, USIM