USDJPY TECHS: Short-term Bull Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: $77.75 - High Jan 20  
• RES 3: $76.26 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $70.83/75.47 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $67.95 - Low Mar 5            
• PRICE: $64.89 @ 06:56 BST Apr 14  
• SUP 1: $58.40 - Low Apr 9    
• SUP 2: $58.85 - 2.000 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $56.89 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $55.00 - Round number support

Brent futures continue to trade above last week’s high. For now, the latest bounce is considered corrective and this is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. The primary trend direction remains down and a resumption of weakness would open $56.89, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is seen at $67.95, the Mar 5 low. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at $70.83.

• RES 4: 94.50 High Apr 7 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 93.00 Round number resistance       
• RES 2: 92.63 High Apr 8  
• RES 1: 91.84 20-day EMA                        
• PRICE: 90.64 @ Close Apr 11
• SUP 1: 90.47/89.99 Low Apr 11 / 9                                       
• SUP 2: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)   
• SUP 3: 88.96 Low Jan 13 and a key support      
• SUP 4: 88.00 Round number support  

A sharp sell-off in Gilt futures last week highlights a strong bearish theme. The contract has breached 90.55, the Mar 27 low. Clearance of this level confirms a full reversal of the Mar 27 - Apr 7 rally. Sights are on the 90.00 handle next, briefly pierced on Apr 9. A clear break of this level would signal scope for an extension towards a key support at 88.96, the Jan 13 low on the continuation chart. Initial resistance is at 91.84, the 20-day EMA.

• RES 4: 151.30 High Mar 3   
• RES 3: 149.60/151.21 50-day EMA / High Mar 28 and reversal trigger 
• RES 2: 147.80 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 144.64/146.54 High Apr 11 / Low Mar 11 recent breakout point   
• PRICE: 142.70 @ 06:57 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 142.07 Low APr 11    
• SUP 2: 141.65 Low Sep 30 ‘24
• SUP 3: 141.00 1.236 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 4: 140.32 Low Sep 17 ‘24

The trend condition in USDJPY remains bearish and Friday’s fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 141.65 next, the Sep 30 ‘24 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 147.80, the 20-day EMA.