USDJPY TECHS: Short-term Bull Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 151.21 High Mar 28 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 150.49 High Apr 2
- RES 2: 149.28 High Apr 3
- RES 1: 148.54/65 76.4% of Mar 28 - Apr 22 bear leg / High May 12
- PRICE: 147.17 @ 07:08 BST May 14
- SUP 1: 146.32/144.93 50- and 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 142.36 Low May 6
- SUP 3: 141.97 Low Apr 29
- SUP 4: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger
The primary trend condition in USDJPY is bearish and gains since Apr 22 appear corrective. This corrective phase remains in play, for now. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 146.32, has been cleared, strengthening a bullish theme. The move higher has exposed 148.54, a Fibonacci retracement (pierced). A clear break of this level would strengthen a bull theme. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention on 142.36, the May 6 low.
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BRENT TECHS: (M5) Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: $77.75 - High Jan 20
- RES 3: $76.26 - High Feb 20
- RES 2: $70.83/75.47 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $67.95 - Low Mar 5
- PRICE: $64.89 @ 06:56 BST Apr 14
- SUP 1: $58.40 - Low Apr 9
- SUP 2: $58.85 - 2.000 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $56.89 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 4: $55.00 - Round number support
Brent futures continue to trade above last week’s high. For now, the latest bounce is considered corrective and this is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. The primary trend direction remains down and a resumption of weakness would open $56.89, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is seen at $67.95, the Mar 5 low. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at $70.83.
GILT TECHS: (M5) Bearish Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 94.50 High Apr 7 and key resistance
- RES 3: 93.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 92.63 High Apr 8
- RES 1: 91.84 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 90.64 @ Close Apr 11
- SUP 1: 90.47/89.99 Low Apr 11 / 9
- SUP 2: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)
- SUP 3: 88.96 Low Jan 13 and a key support
- SUP 4: 88.00 Round number support
A sharp sell-off in Gilt futures last week highlights a strong bearish theme. The contract has breached 90.55, the Mar 27 low. Clearance of this level confirms a full reversal of the Mar 27 - Apr 7 rally. Sights are on the 90.00 handle next, briefly pierced on Apr 9. A clear break of this level would signal scope for an extension towards a key support at 88.96, the Jan 13 low on the continuation chart. Initial resistance is at 91.84, the 20-day EMA.
USDJPY TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 151.30 High Mar 3
- RES 3: 149.60/151.21 50-day EMA / High Mar 28 and reversal trigger
- RES 2: 147.80 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 144.64/146.54 High Apr 11 / Low Mar 11 recent breakout point
- PRICE: 142.70 @ 06:57 BST Apr 14
- SUP 1: 142.07 Low APr 11
- SUP 2: 141.65 Low Sep 30 ‘24
- SUP 3: 141.00 1.236 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
- SUP 4: 140.32 Low Sep 17 ‘24
The trend condition in USDJPY remains bearish and Friday’s fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 141.65 next, the Sep 30 ‘24 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 147.80, the 20-day EMA.
