USDJPY TECHS: Sharp Downstep

• RES 4: 151.21 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 150.49 High Apr 2  
• RES 2: 149.38 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg 
• RES 1: 147.95/149.18 High Jul 22 / 16 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 146.39 @ 16:08 BST Jul 23
• SUP 1: 146.20 Low Jul 23
• SUP 2: 145.88 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 144.23 Low Jul 7 
• SUP 4: 142.68 Low Jul 1 and a key support 

A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place despite the latest pullback - a correction. Short-term pivot support to monitor is 145.88, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal. Recent strength resulted in a breach of resistance at 148.03, the Jun 23 high, and a move through key resistance at 148.65, the May 12 high. The break strengthens the bullish theme and opens 149.38, a Fibonacci retracement.  

A new survey from YouGov has found: “More Americans disapprove than approve of Trump's handling of all six issues asked about in this week's poll: national security (-2 net approval), immigration (-6), foreign policy (-11), jobs and the economy (-12), foreign trade (-15), and inflation/prices (-29)”

• YouGov notes: “Trump's approval on inflation and prices is nearly as low as the lowest score Joe Biden received during his presidency.”
• The report notes: “Inflation and prices is the issue Americans are most likely to name as their most important issue, with 21% picking it. That's more than choose jobs and the economy (14%), health care (10%), and immigration (9%)”
• According to Silver Bulletin's approval aggregator, Trump's approval rating on inflation is roughly -26%, suggesting that the YouGov survey is not an outlier. 

Figure 1: “Donald Trump's net approval on inflation is approaching the low mark of Joe Biden's presidency” (Biden blue line/ Trump red line)

Source: YouGov

A brief risk-off move on a comment by White House adviser Peter Navarro on Bloomberg TV referring to earlier reports of a EU-US trade deal nearing completion that would include a 15% baseline tariff - Navarro says:

•  "We don't negotiate in public. These other countries aspirationally negotiate in public to try to get us to where they want us to go. I would say even though it was reported on Bloomberg, I would take it with a grain of salt. Never assume anything is fixed until the boss says it is fixed... Let's see what happens."
• Navarro's comments weren't quite as concrete as initially feared from the headlines ("*NAVARRO ON US-EU DEAL REPORT: TAKE IT WITH A GRAIN OF SALT" -bbg) so the risk-off move (worth about 10 points in the S&P) quickly reversed.
• Immediate focus is on a reported EU member state vote on tariff countermeasures Thursday in case a deal can't be reached with the US by Aug 1.