USDCAD TECHS: Shallow Bounce Off Lows
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 1: 1.3879 High Aug 1
- PRICE: 1.3759 @ 08:13 BST Aug 13
- SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
USDCAD remains subdued, despite the shallow bounce Friday feeding through to further gains on Monday. The reversal off highs on Tuesday affirms this theme. The pair remains notably lower on the week on the back of last Friday’s USD weakness. Initial firm support has been breached at the 1.3737 20-day EMA, a break below which would resume the correction off the early August high at 1.3879. On the recent run higher, price traded through the 50-day EMA at 1.3746, which aided the rally. This week’s price action, however, has cancelled that bullish threat and returned focus lower. The 100-dma becomes a key pivot point at 1.3814 last.
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USDCAD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29
- RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23
- RES 1: 1.3752 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3690 @ 08:11 BST Jul 14
- SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
Short-term gains in USDCAD appear corrective and the trend structure remains bearish. Resistance to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 1.3752. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a stronger recovery and highlight a possible reversal. For bears, sights are on key support at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6595 High Jul 11
- PRICE: 0.6559 @ 08:07 BST Jul 14
- SUP 1: 0.6534 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6485/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
The trend set-up in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and last week’s gains reinforces current conditions. Resistance at 0.6590 has been pierced. A clear break of this price point would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6485, the 50-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 173.43 High Jul 12 ‘24
- RES 2: 172.92 High Jul 16 ‘24
- RES 1: 172.42 High Jul 11
- PRICE: 171.81 @ 08:02 BST Jul 14
- SUP 1: 170.81 Low Jul 11
- SUP 2: 169.48 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1
- SUP 4: 166.88 50-day EMA
The trend condition in EURJPY is unchanged, a bull cycle is in play and the cross continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Fresh gains last week confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 172.92, the Jul 16 ‘24 high. Support to watch lies at 169.48, the 20-day EMA.
