USDCAD TECHS: Shallow Bounce Off Lows

• RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21  
• RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29 
• RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23  
• RES 1: 1.3752 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.3690 @ 08:11 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

Short-term gains in USDCAD appear corrective and the trend structure remains bearish. Resistance to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 1.3752. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a stronger recovery and highlight a possible reversal. For bears, sights are on key support at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection.

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6595 High Jul 11 
• PRICE: 0.6559 @ 08:07 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 0.6534 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6485/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
• SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14

The trend set-up in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and last week’s gains reinforces current conditions. Resistance at 0.6590 has been pierced. A clear break of this price point would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6485, the 50-day EMA.

• RES 4: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: 173.43 High Jul 12 ‘24
• RES 2: 172.92 High Jul 16 ‘24
• RES 1: 172.42 High Jul 11
• PRICE: 171.81 @ 08:02 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 170.81  Low Jul 11  
• SUP 2: 169.48 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1   
• SUP 4: 166.88 50-day EMA   

The trend condition in EURJPY is unchanged, a bull cycle is in play and the cross continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Fresh gains last week confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 172.92, the Jul 16 ‘24 high. Support to watch lies at 169.48, the 20-day EMA.