JAPAN DATA: Sep CPI Near Forecasts, Lower Services CPI To Reinforce Steady BOJ
Oct-23 23:55
The Sep Nationwide CPI printed close to market forecasts, while services y/y momentum moderated a touch (to 1.4%y/y, from 1.5%). It's unlikely to change near term BoJ thinking, with next week's policy outcome seen firmly on hold by the sell-side consensus and market pricing. Some BoJ board members continue to argue for a hike but this isn't the core board viewpoint at this stage.
- We were 2.9%y/y for headline and core, which was the consensus estimate. The core measure which excludes fresh food and energy printed at 3.0% (against a 3.1% forecast, with 3.3% prior for this print).
- On m/m terms we were +0.1%, same as Aug, while core m/m outcomes were around flat. Goods prices rose 0.1%m/m, while services were flat. In non-seasonally adjusted terms all headline and core measures were down in m/m terms, the ex food and energy measure off 0.3%.
- By sub-sector, inflation points were evident for fresh food, up 3.2%m/m (after the Aug 3.3% rise), while clothing, footwear surged 2.9%m/m. Negatives were evident though for utilities (-1.3%m/m), entertainment (-2.1%m/m, after a 1.8% gain in Aug), household goods (-0.7%m/m) and transport (-0.2%m/m).
- In y/y terms, only food (+6.7%y/y), transport (+3.0%y/y) and clothing (+2.5%y/y) are above the 2% y/y rate.
- Services prices, which BOJ officials are monitoring closely to assess the strength of the virtuous cycle between wages and prices, rose 1.4% y/y in September after a 1.5% increase in August, per the Tokyo MNI policy team. This reinforces the BoJ's wait and see approach.
Fig 1: Japan CPI - Y/Y, Converging Trends Close to 3%
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
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JGBS: Trading To Resume After Yesterday's Holiday
Sep-23 23:20
In post-Tokyo trade on Monday, JGB futures closed stronger, +8 compared to settlement levels.
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- The bills strip little changed.
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MNI: UK JUN-AUG BRIGHTMINE MEDIAN PAY AWARDS +3.0% (VS +3.0% MAY-JUL)
Sep-23 23:01
- MNI: UK JUN-AUG BRIGHTMINE MEDIAN PAY AWARDS +3.0% (VS +3.0% MAY-JUL)
