MEXICO: Same-Store Sales Rise 2.6% Y/y In October

• Treasury look to settle mixed, bonds weaker on very light volumes (TYZ5 670k) due to the Columbus Day holiday. The Dec'25 10Y contract currently trades at 113-05.5 (+1) - rebounding late with no obvious headline of Block-driven support.
• Normal Globex trade hours, stocks open - recovering approximately half of Friday's rout: the DJIA trades up 575.86 points (1.27%) at 46,057.31, S&P E-Minis up 98 points (1.49%) at 6,693, Nasdaq up 467.7 points (2.1%) at 22,674.98.
• No data, but Philly Fed Pres Anna Paulson (non-2025 FOMC voter, votes in 2026) said in a speech Monday that with rates "modestly restrictive now", she sees easing through year-end in line with the September SEP median - in other words, two more cuts by year-end. That's in line with MNI's assumption of her view.
• More Fed speakers tomorrow with focus on Chairman Powell's economic outlook keynote address at the NABE Annual Meeting at 1220ET.

• RES 4: 180.00 Psychological round number  
• RES 3: 179.81 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 177.94 High Oct 10 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: 176.13 @ 15:54 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 175.67 Low Oct 10 
• SUP 2: 174.73 20-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart    
• SUP 4: 172.27 Low Oct 2 and a key medium-term support  

The trend set-up in EURJPY is bullish despite the slippage of last week’s high - a corrective pullback. Key short-term support lies at 172.27, the Oct 2 low. First support to watch lies at 174.73, the 20-day EMA. Last week’s fresh cycle highs strengthen bullish conditions. The cross has cleared resistance at 175.13, the Sep 29 high, to confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. A resumption of gains would open the 178.94, a Fibonacci projection.  

SOFR and Treasury option flow remained rather light Monday, cash closed due to Columbus Day holiday. Underlying futures are mixed, short end mildly firmer while projected rate cut pricing rises vs. late Friday levels (*): Oct'25 at -24.7bp (-24.2bp), Dec'25 at -48.1bp (-47.9bp), Jan'26 at -61.0bp (-60.2bp), Mar'26 at -73.5bp (-72.3bp).

• SOFR Options
  • 3,000 SFRZ5 97.00/97.50/98.00 call flys ref 97.025
  • +6,000 SFRZ5 96.18/96.31/96.50/96.62 call condors, 8.0 ref 96.36
  • +10,000 SFRZ5 96.56/96.75 call spds, 1.5 ref 96.36
  • -4,000 SFRM6 96.82/97.25 call spds, 10.0 ref 96.80
  • -1,500 0QX5 97.00 straddles, 22 ref 97.005
  • +5,000 SFRZ5 96.12/96.25/96.31 put trees, 0.75 ref 96.36
  • Block, 8,000 SFRH6 97.12/97.25 call spds, 1.0 vs. 96.565/0.04%
  • 1,500 SFRH6 97.00/97.50/97.75 broken call trees
  • over 5,000 SFRZ5 97.00 calls outright ref 96.36 to -.635
  • 1,800 0QZ5 97.18 calls, 9.0 ref 97.00
  • over 7,875 SFRZ5 96.50/97.00 1x2 call spds ref 96.36
  • 2,000 SFRZ5 96.12/96.25 put spds ref 96.355
  • 2,100 SFRZ5 96.25/96.31/96.50/96.56 call condors ref 96.355
  • 1,500 SFRZ5 96.31/96.50 call spds ref 96.35
• Treasury Options:
  • 2,000 TYX5 111.5/112/112.25/112.75 put condors, 5 net ref 113-00.5
  • 2,000 TUZ5 103.87/104.37/104.5/104.87 put condors ref 104-10.88
  • 2,500 TUZ5 104.62 calls, 6 ref 104-10.75
  • 3,000 FVX5 108.75/109 2x1 put spds, 11 ref 113-02.5
  • 1,100 TYX5 112/112.5/113/113.5 put condors ref 113-01.5
  • 1,500 TYX5 114/115 call spds ref 113-02
  • over 4,500 TYX5 113.5 calls, 16 ref 113-01.5
  • 1,000 USX5 117/117.5/118 call flys ref 117-24
  • 2,600 TYX5 112.5 puts, 13 ref 112-31.5
  • 1,600 TYX5 109.5 puts, 1 ref 112-31.5
  • over 8,300 TYZ5 112.5 puts, ref 113-00