ENERGY: Russia-Ukraine (November 26)

• Although the Norwegian economy has been resilient through this year, fading offshore tailwinds and a more neutral fiscal policy stance may present downside risks in the years ahead. This may open the door to a faster pace of easing than currently signalled by Norges Bank. That said, no changes to the policy rate nor guidance are expected at next Thursday’s November decision.
• After peaking at 2.7% Y/Y in April/May, Norwegian non-financial corporate lending growth was fallen back to 1.7% Y/Y.
• Household credit growth instead accelerated to 4.4% Y/Y (vs 4.2% prior).
• This week’s Norwegian calendar includes September retail sales (Wednesday) and October unemployment claims data (Friday).

• RES 4: 6953.25 2.000 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing 
• RES 3: 6912.25 3.000 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 2: 6900.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 6890.00 1.764 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
• PRICE: 6887.25 @ 07:23 GMT Oct 27
• SUP 1: 6812.25/6731.66 High Oct 9 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6645.22 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 4: 6506.50 Low Sep 5

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is trading higher today, as it begins the week on a bullish note. The fresh cycle high confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6850.87, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at 6721.62, the 20-day EMA. The 50–day EMA is at 6637.80.

Swedish non-financial corporation lending growth eased three tenths to 2.5% Y/Y in September, but remains comfortably above the H1 average growth rate of 0.95%. The continued passthrough of easier monetary policy should continue to support business lending growth in the coming months. The 2010-2019 average monthly growth rate was 3.5% Y/Y. Household lending (the majority of which is mortgage lending) ticked up another tenth to 2.8% Y/Y (vs 1.8% at the start of this year).

• Around 70% of Swedish household mortgages are floating rate, so interest rate changes feed through to the real economy relatively quickly. In September, the average rate paid on floating rate mortgages fell to 2.80% (vs 2.86% prior), the lowest since August 2022.
• The Riksbank is expected to remain on hold at 1.75% for some time to come.
• This week's calendar includes plenty of growth data. The Riksbank (and the Government) will want to start seeing evidence of a recovery taking hold.