BOJ: Rinban Purchase Offer

The ANZ June job ads print was +1.8%m/m, after a revised fall of 0.6% in May (originally reported as a -1.2% decline). In y/y terms, jobs ads are -0.4%. At the start of the year we were at -13.7%. This was the best m/m increase for the index since Sep last year. It points to continued resilience in terms of labor market conditions. The chart below plots the ANZ job ads m/m change versus monthly employment growth in Australia. 

•  The RBA meets tomorrow, with a 25bps cut widely expected. The central bank is likely to continue to emphasize the tight labor market, but this is unlikely to be enough to offset greater comfort around inflation trends, which should see them ease further. 

Fig 1: ANZ Job Ads Post Solid Rise in June 

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P/ANZ/MNI 

This morning has seen US futures open a little higher but still off the highs from last week, ESU5 -0.40%, NQU5 -0.50%. This week the tariff deadline will be closely watched by a market that looks to have a lot of positives already baked in the price. The JPY is bouncing back in the crosses as risk appetite dwindles as the deadline approaches.

• EUR/JPY - Friday night range 169.85 - 170.33, Asia is trading around 170.15. The pair failed to build any upward momentum through 170.00 on Friday. With risk stalling and the JPY beginning to outperform we could see some reversion back towards the 168.50 area.
• GBP/JPY - Friday night 196.91 - 197.41, Asia trades around 197.00. The pair bounced strongly off its support around 196.00, with risk stalling the market will be watching to see if this demand is still around if we dip back down there. 
• NZD/JPY - Friday night range 87.45 - 87.70, Asia is currently dealing 87.20. NZD/JPY had a false break above 88.00 and has turned quickly back lower. With risk stalling the danger is this pair drifts back to test its support around 86.00.
• CNH/JPY - Friday night range 20.1322 - 20.1799 Asia is currently trading around 20.1625. A big reversal from the 20.50/20.60 resistance area. In the middle of its recent range awaiting clearer direction with a bias to sell rallies.

Fig 1 : NZD/JPY Hourly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway will give a speech on July 24, looking at the economic impacts of tariffs on New Zealand.

Via RBNZ: "Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway will give a speech about global tariffs on Thursday, 24 July covering:

• The various ways global tariffs will impact us here in New Zealand; and How the RBNZ is thinking through the impacts on inflation and the economy more broadly.
• The speech will be published on the RBNZ website at the time of delivery. Mr Conway will deliver the speech at a Business NZ event, hosted by Buddle Findlay in Wellington. The speech is not being livestreamed, however a video recording of the speech will be made available as soon as practicable on the RBNZ YouTube site."