ITALY DATA: Retail Sales See Modest Rebound In October, Tepid Trend Remains

Italian retail sales firmed in October after recent weakness, with volumes growing 0.4% M/M SA (vs -0.4% Sep, revised up 0.1ppt, -0.3% Aug). On the whole, the data shows a reversal of September's weakness, but there is limited evidence that this is a turning point as the weaker trend remains, with a 3M/3M rate of -0.4% in October. 

• The release is a story of rebounds, with food sales growing 0.7% M/M SA (vs -0.3% Sep, -0.4% Aug), after three consecutive M/M declines. However (as with the headline series), the 3M/3M rate remains negative at -0.6% (vs -0.8% prior).
• Non-food sales rose 0.4% M/M SA (vs -0.5% Sep), though the 3M/3M growth has been pulled into negative territory by the previous two readings, at -0.2% vs 0.0% in September.
• ISTAT consumer confidence increased in October to 97.6 (vs 96.8 Sep), with the retail confidence indicator rising to 13.2 from 9.1 (though the correlation with retail sales is relatively weak), and Q3 GDP showed household consumption growing 0.1% Q/Q, 0.9% Y/Y.
• Looking at Y/Y non-seasonally adjusted rates, retail sales volume growth was flat across the board (total, food and non-food). Within non-food, among the mixed details, the press release notes the largest increase was seen in "Cosmetic and toilet articles" (4.2% Y/Y), the same as September, while the sharpest decline was observed in "Electric, household appliances, audio-video equipment" (-2.2% Y/Y).