USDJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

Tsy quarterly futures roll volumes from June'25 to September'25 rather muted this morning, percentage complete is still running less that 5% across the curve ahead the "First Notice" date on May 30. Current roll details:

• TUM5/TUU5 appr 13,000 from -8.5 to -7.88, -7.88 last
• FVM5/FVU5 appr 95,200 from -3.75 to -2.75, -2.75 last
• TYM5/TYU5 appr 25,200 from -1.75 to -0.75, -0.75 last
• UXYM5/UXYU5 appr 13,600 from 3.5 to 3.75, 3.75 last
• USM5/USU5 appr 1,900 from 9.75 to 10.25, 10.0 last
• WNM5/WNU5 appr 6,300 from 5.5 to 6.0, 5.75 last
• Reminder, June futures won't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on June 18, 2s and 5s on June 30. June Tsy options, however, expire May 23.

• 4,500 TUN5 103.75/1042x3 call spds, 4 net ref 103-15.5

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23    
• RES 3: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8541/8557 High May 2 / High Apr 28
• RES 1: 0.8465 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8434 @ 15:52 BST May 14
• SUP 1: 0.8403 Low May 12   
• SUP 2: 0.8400 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.8359 1.236 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing 
• SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support  

EURGBP is trading just above recent lows. The cross traded to a fresh, short-term cycle low Monday, strengthening a bearish theme. It has also cleared support at 0.8465, the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower. Sights are on 0.8415 next, a Fibonacci retracement. This level has been pierced, a clear break of it would open 0.8400 and below. Key near-term resistance is 0.8541, the May 2 high. A break of it is required to signal a potential reversal.