USDCAD TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• EU2b WNG Long 3Y Fixed (Nov. 17, 2028) MS+15 Area (MNI had expected a syndication today and pencilled in E1-3bln)
• Coupon: Annual, act/act, short first
• Settlement: June 17, 2025
• ISIN: EU000A1Z99X3
• Bookrunners: HSBC, MS (B&D), UniCredit
• Timing: May price today

Details as per Bloomberg

• RES 4: $37.478 - High Mar 2012  
• RES 3: $37.195 - 2.236 proj of the May 15 - 22 high / low price swing
• RES 2: $36.987 - 1.000 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing
• RES 1: $36.886 - High Jun 9 
• PRICE: $36.516 @ 08:07 BST Jun 10 
• SUP 1: $33.967 - Low Jun 3
• SUP 2: $33.289/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
• SUP 3: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24  

An impulsive bull wave in Silver remains in play and last week’s strong gains plus yesterday’s extension, reinforce this condition. Last Thursday’s rally resulted in a move above $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The clear break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on $36.987 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $33.967, the Jun 3 low.

Swedish April GDP rose 0.4% M/M, which may come as somewhat of a relief after the weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP print (-0.2% Q/Q). However, as always the monthly activity data should be taken with a pinch of salt – it is not often a good predictor of actual GDP outcomes and is prone to revisions. More focus should be placed on the Riksbank’s Business Survey at 0830BST/0930CET today. 

• Despite these caveats, household consumption and business production rose solidly in April.
• Consumption rose 0.5% M/M (vs -0.1% prior), corresponding to a 0.6% 3m/3m rate (vs 0.5% prior). There was monthly growth in food and beverage sales, furniture and household equipment, transport and recreation. Meanwhile, clothing and footwear, housing, electricity, gas and heating and telecommunications all fell on the month. However, the monthly household indicator appears to have overstated actually quarterly growth in recent months.
• Private sector production rose a strong 2.3% M/M (VS -0.7% prior), with over 3% monthly growth in industry and services production. Construction was slightly negative.