POWER: Reden, SNCF Sign 25-Year Solar PPA in France

Private sector German medium-term GDP forecasts have again seen a deterioration with hard data continuing to lag improving sentiment and an apparent stagnation in terms of wider economic reform from the government. The downward revisions across 2026 provide an interesting contrast to the most recent hawkish ECB repricing, and should be weighed against analysts' expectations for upward revisions to the ECB's Eurozone GDP forecasts which are to be published Thursday.

• Updating a median estimate from seven sellside analysts that we track, Y/Y growth is expected to start accelerating in Q2 of next year before topping out at 1.4% Y/Y over the course of 2027. However, these medium-term forecasts have seen downward pressure in recent months, with broad downward revisions of ~0.3pp in most of 2027 comfortably outweighing a marginally higher median for 4Q25.
• This comes after IFO published on Friday a material downside growth revision - to 0.8% Y/Y for 2026 (from 1.3%). 0.8% is exactly where their 2026 view stood right before IFO started incorporating the government's fiscal easing announcement from last March, suggesting this has been crowded out to a large extent by underlying weakness in the private sector. "The German government's measures will help in the short term but are insufficient to expand the production capacities of the German economy in the long term", IFO commented.
• The government also shared their view this morning, concluding that "the German economy continues to face conflicting pressures: on the one hand, external factors are weighing on the economy in the form of weak foreign demand, declining competitiveness, and isolated bottlenecks for certain intermediate goods; on the other hand, there are signs of a gradual stabilization of the domestic economy, supported in part by the increasingly noticeable fiscal stimulus measures implemented recently".

• RES 4: 113-09   76.4% retracement of the Nov 25 - Dec 10 bear leg
• RES 3: 113-00+ 61.8% retracement of the Nov 25 - Dec 10 bear leg
• RES 2: 112-27+ High Dec 5 
• RES 1: 112-21/23 20-day EMA / High Dec 11 
• PRICE:‌‌ 112-11 @ 11:10 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: 111-29   Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 111-19   1.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 111-11   1.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing 
• SUP 4: 111-00   Round number support 

A bearish theme in Treasuries remains intact and short-term gains appear corrective. The rally last Thursday topped out at 112-23, meaning resistance at  the 20-day EMA, currently at 112-21, remains intact. A continuation lower would refocus attention on key short-term support at 111-29, the Dec 10 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and signal scope for an extension towards 111-19, a Fibonacci projection.

Equity Option Expiry in Notional Term for 19th Dec Triple Witching. These can of course change throughout this Week. 

Very large expiries for the SPX, the last big one was September 2024 with 3.73T.

• SPX: $4.16T.
• NDX: $164.12bn.
• Amazon: $23.98bn.
• Apple: $25.35bn.
• SX5E: €457.99bn.
• SX7E: €38.48bn.
• Dax: €52.38bn.