USDJPY TECHS: Recovery Extends
- RES 4: 155.89/156.75 High Nov 20 / 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 154.84 76.4% retracement of the Nov 15 - Dec 3 pullback
- RES 2: 153.66 61.8% retracement of the Nov 15 - Dec 3 pullback
- RES 1: 152.82 High Dec 11
- PRICE: 152.54 @ 06:48 GMT Dec 12
- SUP 1: 149.37/148.65 Low Dec 06 / 03 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 148.17 50.0% retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 bull leg
- SUP 3: 147.67 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 147.35 Low Oct 8
USDJPY has traded higher this week and is holding on to its latest gains. The pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This undermines the recent bearish theme and for now, signals scope for an extension higher. The next firm short-term resistance is at 153.66, a Fibonacci retracement. A reversal lower would signal the end of the latest bounce and refocus attention on the bear trigger at 148.65, the Dec 3 low.
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EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply - W/C 11 Nov
The Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Portugal will look to hold auctions this week. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E20.7bln, down from E32.8bln last week.
- Today, the Netherlands will sell E2.0-2.5bln of the 5-year 0.25% Jul-29 DSL (ISIN: NL0013332430).
- Also today, Germany will sell E5bln of the 2.00% Dec-26 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22072).
- Tomorrow, Italy will hold a 3/7/15-year BTP auction. On offer will be E3.5-4.0bln of the new 3-year 2.70% Oct-27 BTP (ISIN: TBC), E1.25-1.50bln of the 3.50% Feb-31 BTP (ISIN: IT0005580094), E1.25-1.50bln of the 2.50% Dec-32 BTP (ISIN: IT0005494239) and E1.00-1.25bln of the on-the-run 15-year 4.15% Oct-39 BTP (ISIN: IT0005582421). Note that the 3.15% Nov-31 BTP that was recently launched via syndication will not be on offer.
- Also tomorrow, Germany will return to the market to sell E4bln of the 10-year 2.60% Aug-34 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z031).
- Finally tomorrow, Portugal will hold an OT auction, to sell a combined E1.00-1.25bln of the on-the-run 10-year 2.875% Oct-34 OT (ISIN: PTOTESOE0021) and the 4.10% Feb-45 OT (ISIN: PTOTEBOE0020).
For more on this week's issuance and a look ahead to next week see the PDF here: EZ241112.pdf
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C November 11, 2024
Spain, Italy, Belgium, Finland and France are due to sell bills today to complete the week's issuance, whilst Germany came to the market yesterday. We expect issuance to be E28.6bln in first round operations, down from E29.6bln last week.
- This morning, Spain will issue a combined E1.5-2.5bln of the 3-month Feb 5, 2025 letras and the 9-month Aug 6, 2025 letras.
- Also this morning, Italy will come to the market to sell E1.5bln of the new 2-month Jan 14, 2025 BOT and E7.5bln of the new 12-month Nov 14, 2025 BOT.
- Thirdly this morning, Belgium looks to sell a combined E3.2-3.6bln of the following TCs: an indicative E1.4bln of the 4-month Mar 13, 2025 TC and an indicative E2.0bln of the new 12-month Nov 13, 2025 TC.
- Next today, Finland will issue a combined E1-2bln of the 6-month May 13, 2025 RFTB and the 9-month Aug 13, 2025 RFTB.
- Finally today, France will sell up to a combined E7.9bln of the 12/14/25/51-week BTFs: E0.4-0.8bln of the 12-week Feb 2, 2025 BTF, E2.9-3.3bln of the new 14-week Feb 19, 2025 BTF, E1.6-2.0bln of the 25-week May 7, 2025 BTF and E1.4-2.0bln of the 51-week Nov 5, 2025 BTF.
For more on future auctions see the full MNI Eurozone/UK T-bill auction calendar here.
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 3: 156.67 76.4% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 155.27 2.00 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 1: 154.71 High Nov 7
- PRICE: 153.76 @ 06:39 GMT Nov 12
- SUP 1: 151.76 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 149.84 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 149.09 Low Oct 21
- SUP 4: 147.35 Low Oct 8
The USDJPY trend condition is unchanged and remains bullish with price trading closer to its recent highs. Resistance at 153.88, the Oct 28 high, has been breached, reinforcing a bullish condition. Sights are on 155.27, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 151.76, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal the start of a short-term corrective cycle. Support at the 50-day EMA, lies at 149.84.
