JPY: Recent Ranges Still Prevailing, Labour Earnings & BoJ Regional Report Today

NZGBs are 4-8bps cheaper, extending their post-RBNZ sell-off after US tsys came under moderate pressure, 1-4bps cheaper, on Monday.

• US tsys moved away from cheaps after the NY Fed Consumer Sentiment Survey receded to 3.20% from November's 3.24%. A strong Tsy 3Y auction, drawing 3.614% high yield vs. 3.622% WI, contributed to the bounce off session lows.
• The main focus remains on Wednesday's FOMC decision, widely expected to deliver a third consecutive 25bp cut after NY Fed Williams’ uncharacteristic guidance following the delayed September payrolls report. Potentially contentious meeting with many FOMC members preferring to have paused.
• The dot plot distribution will be watched keenly, whilst we expect the economic projections to show an upward revision for GDP growth and a downward revision for core PCE inflation.
• Swap rates are 8-10bps cheaper, with the 5-year underperforming (see chart).
• RBNZ-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings. No easing is now priced for February, while November 2026 assigns 55bps of tightening.
• Today, the local calendar will be empty until tomorrow, when RBNZ Governor Breman hosts a media Q+A alongside Net Migration data.
• On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$175mn of the 4.50% May-30 bond, NZ$200mn of the 3.50% Apr-33 bond and NZ$75mn of the 5.00% May-54 bond.

Bloomberg Finance LP

Oil unwound most of last week’s gains on Monday as supply concerns resurfaced in the context of ongoing talks to find a Ukraine peace deal. The market had rallied as hopes of an agreement faded but yesterday sold off as it assumed that Russia would continue to find ways around restrictions ensuring supplies at a time of a market surplus. This sentiment also drove product prices lower with diesel prices down 2.9% on Monday. 

• WTI fell 2.1% to $58.85/bbl, close to the intraday low of $58.68. The benchmark remains in a bearish trend with the bear trigger at $55.99.
• Brent is down 2.0% to $62.49/bbl after falling to $62.34. It is in a bear cycle with the trigger at $59.93.
• Russia’s President Putin reassured India’s PM Modi that oil supplies would be “uninterrupted”. This week US officials are in India to negotiate a trade deal and its imports of Russian crude will be on the agenda given the US’ punitive 25% tariff due to its purchases. Refiners have signalled that the latest sanctions make it harder to purchase Russian crude.
• The focus will return this week to market fundamentals with the EIA short-term energy outlook published on Tuesday and OPEC & IEA reports on Thursday.

• Hong Kong to Sell HK$63.845 Billion 91-Day Bills
• Hong Kong to Sell HK$14 Billion 182-Day Bills
• Thailand to Sell THB10 bn of 2045 Bonds
• Thailand to Sell THB30bn of 2030 Bonds
• Indonesia To Sell 2049 Sukuk Bonds (PBS038)
• Indonesia To Sell 2028 Sukuk Bonds (PBS030)
• Indonesia To Sell 2030 Sukuk Bonds (PBS040)
• Indonesia To Sell 32D Sukuk Bills (SPNS12012026)
• Indonesia To Sell 2039 Sukuk Bonds (PBS034)
• Indonesia To Sell 2041 Sukuk Bonds (PBS039)
• Indonesia To Sell 242D Sukuk Bills (SPNS10082026)
• Indonesia To Sell 172D Sukuk Bills (SPNS01062026)
• MAS to Sell S$2 Billion 252-Day Bills on Dec. 9
• MAS to Sell S$14 Billion 28-Day Bills on Dec. 9
• MAS to Sell S$22.3 Billion 84-Day Bills on Dec. 9
• Philippines To Sell PHP 7.5Bln 182D Bills (PH0000060477)
• Philippines To Sell PHP 7.0Bln 91D Bills (PH0000060048)
• Philippines To Sell PHP 7.5Bln 364D Bills (PH0000061525)
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 182D SVBI Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 32D SVBI Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 90D SVBI Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 365D SVBI Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 274D SVBI Bills