CANADA DATA: Real Wages Ticking Up Amid Strike-Hit Hours Worked Weakness

Wage growth ticked up in October on a Y/Y basis. Overall average hourly wages saw a 0.8% M/M rise, with the Y/Y rate up to 3.5% from 3.3% prior for the highest since March. 

• And defying expectations for a pullback, permanent employees saw wages rise 4.0% Y/Y from 3.6% prior for the highest since February (3.5% consensus), with a 0.9% M/M rise.
• This keeps wage growth above inflation (2.4% Y/Y in September), suggesting real gains.
• It comes as hours worked dropped for the 3rd month in 4, at -0.2% M/M.
• There had been some speculation that hours worked could be weighed down by an Alberta teachers' strike that would not have registered in the unemployment column, and indeed as National Bank points out, October saw ~3k hours lost due to strike - the most since 1991 - so this should perhaps be taken with some care.
• Regardless of the reason, the Y/Y rise in hours worked of 0.75% is the slowest since February and before that, February 2021, and - barring a productivity miracle - is suggestive of softer output, the Alberta strike notwithstanding.
• Adding back those 3k lost hours to labour disputes/strikes and October would have seen around 0.2% M/M hourly gains and a 1.2% Y/Y gains, better but still a slowdown from 3+% seen in the stronger 2023 economy.