AUSTRALIA DATA: Q1 Exports To US Up Sharply
May-01 02:52
While it is too early to see the impact of the 10% tariff on US imports from Australia and 25% on its steel and aluminium, there was a sharp jump in exports to the US in Q1 to beat the deadlines, but there is likely to be some unwind in Q2 due to the new duties and the frontloaded shipments. Export growth to much of Asia improved in March as commodity volumes rose.
Australia merchandise exports by country y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
- Goods exports to the US rose 140.5% q/q in Q1 due to tariff fears was up 200% y/y in March. The US is a relatively small export destination for Australia worth 4.6% of total exports in 2024 compared to 34.6% for China.
- Shipments to China have been weak but rose sharply in March, as they usually do, and are now down only 2.4% y/y after -20.4% y/y in February. There were sharp increases in the volume of iron ore shipped to China but also coal was higher.
- Japan and Korea increased their purchases of Australian iron ore and coal, while India saw a large increase in the latter.
- Total export values to Japan were still down 11.4% y/y but improved from -20.2%, while to Korea they are up 3.7% y/y after +13.3% y/y. Shipments to India rose 30.2% y/y.
- Double-digit volume increases in iron ore, coal and LNG far outweighed broad-based declines in unit values. Overall export values of metal ores rose 11.6% m/m, coal +10.7%, other mineral fuels +4.2%, metals +3.0% and other manufactures +13.3%. Annual growth in commodity exports remains soft though.
Australia commodity exports y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/LSEG
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ASIA STOCKS: India Inflows Top Three Billion in Five Days (AMENDED)
Apr-01 02:38
As the world awaits news on tariffs from the White House, news out of India suggests that current tariffs on US agricultural products could be lowered or removed. This comes at a time when India has had five successive days of very strong inflows into their equity markets.
- South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$1,214m yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$1,426m. 2025 to date flows are -$5,309m. The 5-day average is -$285m, the 20-day average is -$73m and the 100-day average of -$100m.
- Taiwan: Had outflows of -$857m yesterday, with total outflows of -$3,119m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$18,290. The 5-day average is -$624m, the 20-day average of -$602m and the 100-day average of -$266m.
- India: Saw inflows of +$947m as of the 27th, with a total inflow of +$3,231m over the previous 5 days. YTD outflows stand at -$12,796m. The 5-day average is +$646m, the 20-day average of -$14m and the 100-day average of -$144m.
- Indonesia: Saw inflows of $38m as of the 27th, with a total inflow of +$54m over the previous 5 days. YTD outflows stand at -$1,830m. The 5-day average is +$11m, the 20-day average of -$33m and the 100-day average of -$34m.
- Thailand: Recorded outflows of -$44m yesterday, totaling -$163m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$1,172m. The 5-day average is -$33m, the 20-day average of -$30m the 100-day average of -$18m.
- Malaysia: Recorded outflows of -$13m as of 27th, totaling -$247m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,155m. The 5-day average is -$49m, the 20-day average of -$56m the 100-day average of -$36m.
- Philippines: Saw inflows of +$4m yesterday, with net outflows of -$26m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$209m. The 5-day average is -$5m, the 20-day average of +$2m the 100-day average of -$7m.
CHINA: CAIXIN PMI Shows Stability Despite Tariffs.
Apr-01 02:17
- China’s CAIXIN PMI , which emphasizes smaller, private, and export-oriented companies expanded in March in spite of US tariffs.
- The private sector survey result of +51.2 was a marked improvement from +50.8 the month prior
- This was the sixth consecutive month of expansion (i.e. above 50) and the best result since November last year.
- The results indicate a positive outlook from private companies which for many observers recognizes a clearer outlook for the broader economy.
- This week sees a press conference from the White House where further updates on tariffs will be announced at a time as the US is reviewing of Beijing’s compliance with phase 1 on the trade deal agreed during Trump’s first Presidency.
- The Senior Economist at Caixin noted that “Supply and Demand kept expanding and export growth has continued, despite the job market remaining sluggish.”
STIR: RBA Dated OIS Pricing Little Changed Ahead Of Policy Decision
Apr-01 02:14
RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings today ahead of today's RBA Policy Decision.
Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Today Vs. Yesterday
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
