MNI Banxico Review – Feb 2026: On Hold, Dovish Bias Maintained

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Executive Summary 

• Banxico’s governing board left the overnight rate unchanged at 7.00% in a unanimous decision, as was widely expected.
• The decision to pause the easing cycle came as inflation has remained above expectations, prompting the Board to revise up its inflation forecasts and push back the projected convergence to target until Q2 2027.
• However, the statement maintained a dovish bias, with the forward guidance keeping the door open to renewed cuts this year, amid ongoing downside risks to growth.
• Analysts still see scope for a March rate cut, although most expect the next move later in the year, with year-end forecasts still at 6.25%-6.75%.