FRANCE: PS' Faure-"No Guarantee We Won't Vote Down Next Gov't"
Oct-10 15:48
Speaking after the conclusion of a lengthy meeting between President Emmanuel Macron and party leaders at the Elysee Palace, centre-left Socialist Party (PS) First Secretary Olivier Faure say Macron, "is not ready to grant [our request] for a left-wing Prime Minister...[there was] no clear response from the Head of State...There is no guarantee of non-censorship from the Socialist Party". PS leader in the National Assembly, Boris Vallaud: "We have not received any response on any subject, not even on pensions".
- BFM TV reports on comments from Fabien Roussell from the left-wing Communist Party, "Roussel regrets not having seen "any clarity in the President of the Republic's responses." [...] The PCF national secretary added: "For our part, we expect there to be real change; if this is not the case, it would be a huge disappointment. If the new Prime Minister remains in Emmanuel Macron's camp and pursues the same policies, we will not be able to accept it."
- With all parties from the NFP coming out of the meeting with negative comments towards the talks, it would appear Macron is limited to his centrist/centre-right bloc or a technocrat to fill the post of PM. This would also leave the gov't short of a majority in the National Assembly.
- Le Parisien reports that deputies from the conservative Les Republicains (LR) will hold a videoconference at 18:15CET (12:15ET, 17:15BST). Party leader Bruno Retailleau had previously said that a leftist (or even Macronist) PM would mean his party would be unable to support a new gov't.
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US: Trump Statement On Russian Drone Incursion Offers Few Clues On Response
Sep-10 15:41
US President Donald Trump's cryptic first statement on the overnight Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace has offered few clues on the US response. "What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!," Trump wrote on Truth Social.
- In the wake of the post, Polymarket registered a spike (27% to 39%) in the implied probability of Trump imposing new sanctions on Russia, likely inferring an acceleration of Trump's recent pivot away from Russia.
- A White House spokesperson told reporters earlier Trump plans to hold talks with Polish President Karol Nawrocki later today. The call comes after Trump pledged to maintain US military personnel in Poland during a White House meeting with Nawrocki last week.
- The drone incursion will add weight to Kyiv's dual requests for fresh sanctions on Russia and additional military aid. As a coordinated US-EU sanctions package is likely to be bogged down by the need for EU unanimity, a package of military aid from Washington could be a more effective lever for Trump to apply pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin.
- The most pressing need for Ukraine is additional missile defence systems and interceptors, both of which are under significant supply constraints in Europe and are critical to repelling a sustained Russian aerial bombardment on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.
- Capping a frantic day of NATO diplomacy, Polish PM Donald Tusk, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, French President Emmanuel Macron, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, and UK PM Keir Starmer convened for a call a short time ago.
FED: US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.850%(ALLOT 55.20%)
Sep-10 15:32
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.850%(ALLOT 55.20%)
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 30.87% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 5.49% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 63.64% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.26
MACRO ANALYSIS: Macro Developments Since Last ECB: General Resilience
Sep-10 15:20
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- Developments over the summer have done little to push back on Lagarde's relatively hawkish signalling at the July press conference.
- Economic indicators such as the PMIs continue to gradually improve, the unemployment rate is at all-time lows, and inflation remains very close to the 2.0% medium-term target albeit with core still a little above target.
- The main takeaway is one of general resilience amidst trade policy induced uncertainty.
