MEXICO: President Sheinbaum to Meet Trump on Friday

• RES 4: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 3: 1.1669 High Oct 28 and key resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1577/1618 Low Oct 22 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1542 Low Oct 9 
• PRICE: 1.1476 @ 14:42 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 1.1460 1.382 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.1425 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

A bear leg in EURUSD remains intact and today’s extension reinforces current conditions. The move down maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, the pair has breached a number of important short-term supports, the most recent being 1.1516, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg. This exposes key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. Initial resistance is 1.1542, the Oct 9 low.

Gilts have consolidated the rally seen during the London morning but continue to operate off of session highs.

• Futures +29 at 93.66 vs. best levels of 93.98.
• Bulls pierced initial resistance at 93.96 but couldn’t force a test of the next upside level of interest (94.00).
• Yields 1.0-2.5bp lower on the day, curve bull steepens after flattening earlier today.
• Benchmarks 0.5-5.0bp off October closing lows,.2s closest to breaking their October base, 50s furthest away.
• Speculation surrounding meaningful fiscal tightening, a thinktank report pointing to a smaller-than-previously-envisaged fiscal black hole and wider risk-off price action drove the opening rally.
• Chancellor Reeves failed to provide any clarity on potential fiscal adjustments at this month’s Budget, but her tone and choice to omit reference to some manifesto pledges opens the way to potential tweaks of the big 3 taxes which could impact “working people”.
• BoE-dated OIS 0.5-2.0bp more dovish on the day, 6.5bp, 16bp and 29.5bp of easing priced over the next 3 meetings.
• SONIA futures flat to +3.0.
• October’s dovish extremes remain untouched.

SPX: 6,788.8 (-0.9%); DJIA: 47,093 (-0.5%/-244pts); NDX: 25,642.5 (-1.3%).