POWER: French Spot Power to Rise
Dec-03 08:14
French January power base is expected to rise, once trading, with forecasts a further downward revision in temperature forecasts. Closer in, French spot power is expected to rise with potential industrial action in the power and gas sector, higher demand and lower wind output.
- France Base Power JAN 25 closed up 2.1% at 107.33 EUR/MWh on 2 Dec.
- EUA DEC 24 down 0.8% at 68.26 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas JAN 25 up 0.3% at 48.795 EUR/MWh
- Nuclear availability in France was unchanged at 82% of capacity as of Tuesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
- EdF workers are expected to strike from 3 December 14:00CET until 5 December 21:00 CET.
- The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggests mean temperatures have been further revised down with mean temperatures well below the seasonal average from the end of this week.
- Mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to fall to 2.8C on Wednesday, down from 5.5C on Tuesday and below the seasonal average of 5.4C.
- Power demand in France is forecast to rise to 62.58GW on Wednesday, up from 59.37GW forecasted for Tuesday according to Bloomberg.
- Wind output in France is forecast to decrease to 2.26GW during base load on Wednesday, down from 2.41GW forecasted for Tuesday. Solar PV output is forecast to rise to 2.22GW during peak load on Wednesday, up from 1.87GW forecasted for Tuesday according to SpotRenewables.
- France’s hydro balance is forecast at 1.27TWh on 17 December, compared with 1.49TWh forecasted a day earlier.
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US: Biden Remarks In Philadelphia Underway Shortly
Nov-01 20:31
US President Joe Biden is shortly due to deliver remarks in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on his administration's "historic support for unions". LIVESTREAM
- The speech is a rare forray for Biden into presidential election swing states, with the Harris campaign reportedly preferring to keep distance from the President. A speech in critcal Pennylvania, and another event planned for Saturday, may suggest that Harris has calculated that Biden's appearance may help shore up some blue-collar votes in a state the president retains high levels of support.
- However, considering a recent gaff, Biden's comments will be closely scrutinsed by the press and Republican operatives for any remarks that can be used in last-minute campaign material.
- CNN noted: "More broadly, a Biden comment that will be portrayed by pro-Trump media as contempt for the ex-president’s supporters came at exactly the moment that Harris is trying to come across as a unifying figure to win over Republicans who are disaffected with Trump’s extremism but are not yet ready to take the leap to vote for a Democrat."
- The Washington Examiner notes, in an article summarising the various problems Biden has caused Harris: "The president, now entering his final few months in the White House, may have more trouble with the errant comments. The Associated Press reported Thursday that the White House press office altered the stenographed transcript in a bid to clean up what Biden had said."
US TSY OPTIONS: BLOCK: Large Dec'24 5Y Call Spread
Nov-01 19:59
- 28,591 FVZ4 107.5/109.5 call spreads, 22 vs. 106-30.5/0.30% at 1551:32ET
US TSYS: Late Treasury Roundup: Ignoring Jobs Data, Yields Climb Ahead Election
Nov-01 19:34
- Curves maintained steeper profiles late Friday, despite Treasury futures gradually reversing this morning's post NFP-tied bid. Fast two-way trade reported as Treasury futures briefly extended lows than rebound gap higher after the latest employment report shows much lower than expected jobs gain and down revision to prior, unemployment rate in-line with expectations.
- Support evaporated after higher than expected S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending and ISM prices paid data. After the bell, the Dec'24 10Y contract trades through round number support to 109-31.5 (-15.5) while curves hold steeper levels -- reflecting improved rate cut expectations on the day: 2s10s +4.592 at 15.594 (vs. 7.660 low), 5s30s +3.035 at 34.538 (vs. 28.331 low). After
- Projected rate cuts into early 2025 held firmer vs. late Thursday levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative at -24.6bp ( -23.5bp), Dec'24 -45.9bp (-42.8bp), Jan'25 -59.2bp (-58.1bp), Mar'25 -74.8bp (-75.0bp).
- Greenback initially weakened across the board after the lower-than-expected headline, but the murky details around industrial action and hurricanes likely containing the market fallout here. The USD reversed course throughout the session, terminal rates in the US stronger climbs on the week which contributed to the strong dollar reversal on Friday, with the USD index looking to close the week broadly unchanged around 104.25.
- Looking ahead, the US Presidential Election on Tuesday and the FOMC decision unusually on a Thursday are two major risk events in an otherwise light US calendar.
