CANADA: Post-CPI And Jobs, Analysts Firmly See July BOC Hold
Jul-16 17:28
The broad scope of analysts followed by MNI are increasingly unanimous that the BOC will hold rates ...
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US: FED Reverse Repo Operation
Jun-16 17:26
RRP usage retreats to $140.759B this afternoon from $168.645B Friday, total number of counterparties at 26. Usage had fallen to $54.772B on Wednesday, April 16 -- lowest level since April 2021. Conversely, usage had surged to the highest level since December 31, 2024 on Monday, March 31: $399.167B.
STIR: Narrow Ranges, US Retail Sales Tomorrow
Jun-16 17:24
- Fed Funds implied rates for near-term meetings have pushed higher through today’s US session, whilst the Dec’25 has held narrow ranges since the US crossover to consolidate an overnight push higher as markets looked for Israel-Iran de-escalation.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0bp for Wed, 3.5bp Jul, 18bp Sep, 31.5bp Oct and 47bp Dec.
- The SOFR implied terminal yield of 3.31% (SFRZ6) is 1bp lower on the day as it holds close to ~100bp of cuts for what’s left of the cycle.
- The limited change since the US crossover comes with net gains for US equity futures vs net losses for crude futures and spot gold.
- G7 headlines today have seen Trump unwilling to sign the statement on Israel-Iran and looking at a US-Canada deal being achievable within days or weeks.
- Today’s weak Empire manufacturing release didn’t move the needle, with the headline miss offset by a much-improved outlook within the report.
- Tomorrow sees more notable data including retail sales and import prices for May at 0830ET before industrial production for May at 0915ET. They provide important hard data updates for May heading into the two-day FOMC meeting starting tomorrow.
- MNI Fed Preview: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Jun2025_ba372b9458.pdf
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar
Jun-16 17:19
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 17-Jun 0830 Retail Sales Adv MoM (0.1%, -0.6%); Ex Auto (0.1%, 0.2%)
- 17-Jun 0830 Retail Sales Control Group (-0.2%, 0.3%)
- 17-Jun 0830 Import Price Index MoM (0.1%, -0.2%), YoY (0.1%, 0.0%)
- 17-Jun 0830 Export Price Index MoM (0.1%, -0.2%), YoY (2.0%, --)
- 17-Jun 0830 New York Fed Services Business Activity (-16.2, --)
- 17-Jun 0915 Industrial Production MoM (0.0%, 0.0%)
- 17-Jun 0915 Capacity Utilization (77.7%, 77.7%)
- 17-Jun 0915 Manufacturing (SIC) Production (-0.4%, 0.1%)
- 17-Jun 1000 Business Inventories (0.1%, 0.0%)
- 17-Jun 1000 NAHB Housing Market Index (34, 36)
- 17-Jun 1130 US Tsy $55B 6W bill auction
- 17-Jun 1300 US Tsy $23B 5Y TIPS re-open auction (91282CNB3)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
