CANADA DATA: Population Declines In Q3 As Government Curbs Immigration

Canadian inflation gauges looked flat/softer almost across the board in terms of sequential pressures in October, including core and measures. Some of the 3M run rates for core metrics (xFE, ex-volatile / taxes) after a softer July was replaced in the calculation by stronger September/October figures, but the 6 month rates were uniformly softer.

Core CPI (median & trim av):
% M/M: 0.18 in Oct'25 after 0.23 in Sep'25
% 3mth ar: 2.6 in Oct'25 after 2.7 in Sep'25
% 6mth ar: 2.56 in Oct'25 after 2.95 in Sep'25
% Y/Y: 2.95 in Oct'25 after 3.1 in Sep'25

CPI xFE (ex food & energy):
% M/M: 0.26 in Oct'25 after 0.26 in Sep'25
% 3mth ar: 2.61 in Oct'25 after 1.82 in Sep'25
% 6mth ar: 2.35 in Oct'25 after 2.49 in Sep'25

CPIX (ex 8 most volatile & indirect taxes):
% M/M: 0.31 in Oct'25 after 0.31 in Sep'25
% 3mth ar: 3.31 in Oct'25 after 2.29 in Sep'25
% 6mth ar: 2.8 in Oct'25 after 3.08 in Sep'25
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., MNI

BSD (18/12/26) 8.5p, traded at 0.863 in 10k (suggest seller and new position).

The NY Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey impressed in November, with the current General Business Conditions index rising 8 points to a 1-year high 18.7 (well above the 5.8 expected). As such it's the 2nd highest reading since April 2022, with solidly-above-long-term average-readings now for 2 consecutive months, the first time we've seen that since 2021 for this notoriously volatile survey.

• The 6-month outlook pulled back 19.1 from to 30.3 prior, which had been the highest optimism since January.
• Activity indices were strong. New orders jumped to 15.9 from 3.7, setting a 12-month high just 2 months after setting a 17-month low; shipments rose 2 points to 16.8 while inventories turned positive after 3 consecutive negative months.
• The employment gauge edged up to 6.6 from 6.2, for a fresh 4-month high, while the average workweek rose to a multiyear high.
• Inflation remained stubbornly high but didn't show signs of worsening. Current prices paid fell to 49.0 after 52.4, with expected prices paid 6-months ahead down to 62.5 from 65.0. Both are elevated but suggest some moderation after October's sharp M/M rise that suggested inflation was picking up alongside with activity.
• In short, a solid start to the month's regional Fed manufacturing surveys.