FRANCE: Poll Showing Bardella Leading, No Le Pen Sows Discord In RN-Le Monde
An opinion poll carried out by IFOP for the Hexagone Institute think tank has ruffled feathers among mainstream politicians, and the right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) reports Le Monde. Hexagone is affiliated with liberal-conservative entrepreneur Pierre-Edouard Stérin, and its latest poll garnered significant attention for only asking respondents about RN leader Jordan Bardella as the party's presidential candidate, fully excluding three-time candidate Marine Le Pen. Given the court sentence Le Pen received earlier this year that bars her from running for political office for five years, this may not seem controversial. However, Le Pen is pursuing an appeal, and there would appear to be a reluctance on behalf of her team to effectively concede that Bardella will run for the presidency in 2027.
- The poll, carried out 11-30 April but published on 5 May, shows Bardella winning a first-round plurality no matter who opposes him from the centrist or centre-right blocs. His second round opponent looks most likely to be centre-right Horizons party leader and former PM Edouard Philippe, who comes in second place in all scenarios where he runs. In the scenario, centrist Renaissance former PM Gabriel Attal runs, he and Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau from the conservative Les Républicains each emerge with 14% support behind Bardella.
- Polling for a hypothetical second round shows Bardella and Philippe level on 50% each, while Bardella would beat Attal 52-48%.
Chart 1. Hypothetical First Round Presidential Election Scenarios, %
Source: IFOP-Hexagone, MNI. Fieldwork 11-30 April, 9,128 respondents.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Jun'25 2Y Sale
- -2,500 TUM5 104-06.62, sell through 108-75 post time bid at 0738:00ET, DV01 $92,000. The 2Y contract trades 104-07.38 last.
GERMANY: Public Sector Deal Supports Slowing Negotiated Wage Growth Expectations
Wage negotiations in the public sector (federal and municipal level, impacting 2.7mln employees, ~6% of total employment) ended with a two-stage salary increase of 3% or a minimum of E110/month retroactively starting on April 1, and a further 2.8% starting May 1 2026, alongside some shift allowance increases and a softening of the maximum working hours in a 27-month contract maturity in March 2027.
- UBS calculates that the public sector wage deal equates to average annual wage growth in the sector of 2.8% in the next two years. We note that this is higher than:
- average Y/Y services sector negotiated wage growth 2011-19 (2.4%)
- the Bundesbank's forecast for German negotiated wage growth in 2025 (2.5%)
- the Bundesbank's forecast for German HICP (2.4% '25, 2.1% '26).
- However, the figures still mark a slower pace of wage growth than seen in recent quarters (services sector excl. one-offs standing at 4.7% Y/Y in March according to Destatis data, see chart below).
- Thus, the takeaway from the deal is that it appears to underpin the ECB's assumption of Eurozone wage growth tapering off going forward - but for the Bundesbank's 2025 forecast to be met, other deals this year have to come in lower than this one, and this agreement remains above pre-pandemic norms.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Summary Of Latest Morning Flow
- ERZ5 99.25/99.75 call spread, now trading at 2.25. 20k sold all day at 2.5 down to 2.25
- ERK5 98.125/98.25 call spread, bought for 1.25 in 15k.
- ERM5 98.125/98.25 call spread has traded in 30k at 1.25. Paper has both bought and sold this structure.
