CANADA: Politics Week: Election Framed Around US Trade War Pushes Carney Ahead
Mar-28 14:30
- Mark Carney has turned what was a runaway Conservative win to some chance the Liberals will form a majority government in the April 28 vote.
- Polling aggregator 338Canada shows Liberals could win 187 of 343 seats to 127 for Conservatives. The NDP, who held the balance of power in the last minority Parliament, could fall to just five seats.
- Donald Trump's move to tariff autos Wed and promises of a 25% blanket tariff on Apr 2 have boosted Liberal fortunes at the expense of Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives.
- Poilievre has at times echoed some of Trump's slogans, and Alberta Premier told a Breitbart podcast Poilievre would be more aligned with Trump. Poilievre has campaigned on the idea the Liberals aren't serious about cutting taxes such as the unpopular carbon levy.
- Carney has echoed some Conservative policies of pledging household tax cuts.
- Televised debates set for Apr 16 and Apr 17.
- Sample headlines: "The book on Pierre Poilievre: He’s ‘an angry teenager in the body of a grown man’" (Globe and Mail); "All knives are out to pop the Liberals’ popularity bubble" (National Post).
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EQUITIES: US Cash Opening calls
Feb-26 14:27
SPX: 5,979.5 (+0.4%); DJIA: 43,701 (+0.2%/+80pts); NDX: 21,200.5 (+0.5%).
BONDS: TY Respects Highs, WN Block Limits Pullback
Feb-26 14:02
Bulls were unable to test overnight & Tuesday highs in TY futures, which seems to have limited the recovery in Tsys and rally in wider core global FI markets from extending further at this stage.
- Meanwhile, the previously identified block buy in WN futures has prevented the pullback from extending.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: ERM5 97.875/98.00/98.0625/98.1875 Call Condor Given
Feb-26 13:59
ERM5 97.875/98.00/98.0625/98.1875 call condor 4K given at 4.
