EURJPY TECHS: Pierces Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
• RES 2: 96.932 - 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg 
• RES 1: 96.860 - High Apr 07
• PRICE: 96.545 @ 18:27 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 96.450/95.900 - Low Jul 16 / Low Jan 14  
• SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
• SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support 

Aussie 3-yr futures are trading inside a range and closer to recent lows. A resumption of gain would further narrow the gap with resistance at 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high, leaving 96.860 as the next key level. Any continuation lower would instead strengthen a bearish threat. This would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low. Conversely, a reversal higher would open 96.860, the Apr 7 high.

• RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
• RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.1743 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 1.1920 @ 19:20 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 1.1574/1.1528 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 5 
• SUP 2: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 1.1373 Low Jun 10 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30 

EURUSD has recovered from last week’s low. The trend set-up is bullish and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. Note that the pair has pierced key support around the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.1607. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and potentially expose key M/T support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high. A break would resume the primary uptrend.

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index, "which takes into account evaluations of current economic conditions and perceptions of the economy’s direction, is at -20 in August, a bit less negative than the -26 measured in October and -22 in April — but not to the point seen in June, when it rose to -14."

• The Wall Street Journal reports that, “After months of tracking high-income earners’ positive economic outlook, America’s middle-income households appear to be losing confidence”.
• Gallup notes: “Similar to the trend in economic confidence, the 31% of Americans who currently say they are satisfied with the direction of the country is higher than the 26% recorded in late October, as well as the average 22% throughout Biden’s presidency. However, it has waned after reaching 38% in May, the highest of Trump’s second term.”
• Gallup notes: “Partisanship is also at a peak on this metric, with 76% of Republicans saying they are satisfied with the direction of the country versus less than 1% of Democrats. The resulting 76-point gap is the highest Gallup has recorded on this measure, although not substantially different from a 75-point gap in May and 74 points in March and July.”

Figure 1: “In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?”

Source: Gallup