EM LATAM CREDIT: Penoles: Affirmed by Fitch - Neutral
(PENOMX; NR/BBB/BBB) Fitch affirmed the BBB credit rating for Mexico's base and precious metal mine...
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STIR: Sept Implied Fed Rates At 6-Week Lows After Bostic, Goolsbee Comments
Fed funds futures-implied cuts for September's meeting extend through 26bp, up 2+bp on the day and 1bp since commentary this afternoon by Atlanta Fed's Bostic and 2025 FOMC voter, Chicago's Goolsbee. The 4.07% implied funds rate is the lowest for the September meeting since the solid June payrolls data release on July 3.
- This dovish intraday shift is a little counter-intuitive: Bostic, who doesn't vote in 2025 or 2026, sounded the more dovish of the two, acknowledging that continued evidence of weakness in the labor market could put at risk his current view that only one cut by year-end would be appropriate; Goolsbee, who actually votes in September, said that fall Fed meetings would be "live" but didn't sound all that enthusiastic about easing soon, fretting over the services inflation pickup in July's CPI report report, and seeing job growth weakness as potentially the result of a drop in population growth.
- The shift in September pricing accounts for the bulk of the shift in implied pricing through the next several meetings: Oct and Dec see 3.5bp more implied cuts (43bp and 64bp respectively) on the day, with an additional 4bp through March (5 meetings from now).
| Meeting | Current FF Implieds (%), LH | Cumulative Change From Current Rate (bp) | Incremental Chg (bp) | Yesterday (Aug 12) | Chg Since Then (bp) |
| Sep 17 2025 | 4.07 | -26.5 | -26.5 | 4.09 | -2.3 |
| Oct 29 2025 | 3.90 | -43.2 | -16.7 | 3.93 | -3.5 |
| Dec 10 2025 | 3.69 | -63.8 | -20.6 | 3.73 | -3.5 |
| Jan 28 2026 | 3.58 | -75.2 | -11.4 | 3.61 | -3.5 |
| Mar 18 2026 | 3.45 | -88.4 | -13.2 | 3.49 | -3.9 |
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: 173.97 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 172.46 @ 15:59 BST Aug 13
- SUP 1: 169.83 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
- SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1
- SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23
A bullish trend condition in EURJPY remains intact and for now the recent move down is considered corrective. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 169.83. A clear break of the EMA is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. A break of the Jul 28 high of 173.97, would resume the bull cycle.
FED: Atlanta's Bostic: Patient Stance Predicated On Solid Labor Market
Atlanta Fed President Bostic (non-voter in 2025 or 2026) reiterates his view in a Q&A that one Fed rate cut in 2025 is "appropriate", though he says that's predicated on the labor market staying solid.
- On that note, he says that the July employment report "suggests maybe labor markets are a lot weaker than they had been signaling over the previous four or five months. If that's the case, then maybe there is some more imbalance we should be thinking about, and our ability to be patient is much less than it was before".
- Earlier in the day, Chicago's Goolsbee suggested that weaker job gains seen in recent months may represent a drop in population growth amid immigration policy shifts - underlining the uncertainty under which FOMC participants are setting policy.
