CANADA: Party Leaders Gear Up For Second Election Debate @ 1900ET

Apr-17 15:57

Following the French-language leaders' debate on 16 April, the leaders of Canada's four largest parties hold the second, English-language debate this evening ahead of the 28 April federal election. Tonight's debate will start at 1900ET (0000BST, 0800JST). Last night's debate focused on the emerging trade war between Canada and the US, and which candidate is best placed to face down US President Donald Trump. 

  • Pierre Poilievre, leader of the main opposition centre-right Conservatives, sought to portray PM Mark Carney as a facsimile of his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, claiming that Carney and his centre-left Liberals will offer 'more of the same'. Under the former PM, the Liberals trailed the Conservatives by +20%, but the emergent trade war, Trump's aggressive rhetoric, and the departure of the increasingly unpopular Trudeau, have seen a massive shift in the polls, with the Liberals now strong favourites to win an outright majority.
  • Carney said on the focus of the election, The question is who’s going to succeed in facing Donald Trump,”. Poilievre: “I will never compromise Canada’s interests, and I will control what we can here. We can’t control the decisions of Trump, but we can control our domestic economy and overturn Liberal policies that weakened our economy and made us more dependent on the US”.
  • The environmentalist Greens will remain unrepresented after their co-leader was removed from both debates with the party having failed to hit two out of three thresholds for a position on the stage. 

Historical bullets

STIR: SOFR Options Update

Mar-18 15:51

Additional trade since midmorning leaning towards put structures. Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 steady to softer vs. morning levels (*) as follows: Mar'25 steady at -.2bp, May'25 at -5.4bp ( -6bp), Jun'25 at -18.8bp (-19.7bp), Jul'25 at -26.7bp (-28.7bp).

  • +5,000 SFRJ5 95.87/96.00/96.25 broken call flys 1.0 ref 95.87
  • -5,000 SFRM5 95.68/95.81 put spds, 5.75 ref 95.87
  • -4,000 0QM5 97.00/97.50 call spds w/ 0QU5 96.50/97.00 call spd strip, 18.0 total
  • -5,000 0QJ5/2QJ5 9625 put spds, 1.5 Green Apr over
  • -3,000 SFRH6 95.75/96.00/96.50/96.75 Iron Condor 16.25 ref 96.325
  • +5,000 SFRM5 96.18/96.31/96.43/95.62 call condors, 0.5 ref 95.875
  • +10,000 SFRJ5 95.68 puts, 0.5 ref 95.855/0.04%

FED: US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.945%(ALLOT 28.92%)

Mar-18 15:32
  • US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.945%(ALLOT 28.92%)
  • US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 40.00% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 2.00% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 58.00% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 52W AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.13

GILT AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week

Mar-18 15:31

The DMO has announced it will be looking to sell GBP2bln of the 4.75% Oct-43 Gilt (ISIN: GB00BPJJKP77) at its auction next Tuesday, March 25.