CANADA DATA: Participation Assumptions Key Behind U/E Rate Estimate Differences
Dec-06 11:31
- Bloomberg consensus sees Canadian jobs growth of 25k in November after 14.5k in October, whilst the below Canadian bank analysts see a mild skew softer with a median 20k.
- There’s broad agreement with the unemployment rate ticking up to 6.6% although Scotia stand out with their 6.4% call. It highlights just how much participation rate changes can have an impact on perceptions on broader labour market balance.
- The below table shows comments from analysts at the higher, middle and lower end of the spectrum in estimates for jobs growth:
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CROSS ASSET: US Treasuries are seeing another round of selling
Nov-06 11:25
- Another round of selling emerging in Treasuries, with the US joining the session.
- TYZ4 is sold in 20k in few multiple cumulative clips, with similar flows in FVA, TUA and USA.
- The Dollar finds another bid, USDJPY is heading back towards session high, and KRW, CHF, CNH, CNY print fresh session lows.
- EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, SEK, NOK are all seeing offers.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: MBA Mtg Apps, 30Y Bond Auction
Nov-06 11:22
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Nov-6 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications
- Nov-6 1030 US DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
- Nov-6 1130 US Tsy $64B 17W Bill auction
- Nov-6 1300 US Tsy $25B30Y Bond auction
US TSYS: 10-Year Yield Breaches Downtrend Line
Nov-06 11:21
10-Year Tsy yields on track for a close above medium-term downtrend resistance drawn off the October ’23 high following the election result.
- Next resistance June closing high (4.4670%) being tested at typing.
- A clean break there would expose the May 29 closing high (4.6117%).
Fig. 1: U.S. 10-Year Tsy Yield (%)
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
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