MEXICO: Outstanding Loans Rise 8.3% Y/y In September

• EUR/USD: $1.1580(E1.0bln), $1.1615-30(E1.6bln), $1.1675-80(E950mln), $1.1695-00(E1.6bln), $1.1720-25(E964mln), $1.1750(E1.2bln), $1.1785-90(E2.9bln), $1.1850(E760mln), $1.1900(E950mln)
• USD/JPY: Y147.95-00($1.6bln), Y149.50($1.0bln)
• AUD/USD: $0.6600(A$1.9bln)
• USD/CAD: C$1.3900($777mln)

The Supreme Court files a notice in "TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF U.S., ET AL. V. COOK, LISA D." that Gov Cook will be allowed to stay in her position (and not "fired" by the White House) until at least an oral argument on the case is heard in January 2026: "The application for stay presented to The Chief Justice and by him referred to the Court is deferred pending oral argument in January 2026. The Clerk is directed to establish a briefing schedule for amici curiae and any supplemental briefs responding to amici."

Ahead of last year's Autumn Budget, markets underestimated the market-moving potential of Reeves' first fiscal event. While vols indicated a ~30 pip swing in EUR/GBP, price went on to rally near 150 pips in the next two sessions and even with two months until the event, shifts in option vol suggest markets won't be caught offside again.

• The front-end of the GBP vol curve provide a further signal for market concern over the Autumn Budget. The flatter front-end of the curve and the building premium for 2m implied vols shows markets building a risk premium into the event. 2m vols have posted the sharpest gains over the past week as they begin to capture the event on November 26th.
• This effect is particularly evident in EUR/GBP, for which markets continue to favour as a GBP weakness play given the unpredictability of the USD into year-end. This is despite sell-side pushing out expectations of BoE rate cuts this year (see Deutsche Bank, HSBC earlier this month) - an extension of which could work against the consensus view of EURGBP higher.
• We see sustainability of this week's GBP bounce as resting on the fiscal policy mix ahead. The Gilt curve and, in particular, the longer-end has regained a sense of stability after being marked sharply higher at the beginning of September. How valid and long-lasting this proves to be should determine GBP/USD's ability to hold above 1.3525 (50% mid-Sept downleg) and make meaningful headway toward the bull trigger of the July 1st high at 1.3789.