EURJPY TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.2063 2.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1923 2.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1919 High Sep 17
• PRICE: 1.1835 @ 19:56 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: 1.1710/52 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.1574 Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: 1.1528 Low Aug 5
• SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger.

The trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Resistance at 1.1743, the Aug 22 high, has recently been cleared, reinforcing a bull cycle. Tuesday’s gains resulted in a climb above 1.1829 the Jul 01 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens 1.1923 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 1.1652.

• Asked whether the new macro forecasts square up with a projection of a series of rate cuts, Powell says that "I think you could think of this in a way, as a risk management cut". " We need to remain fully committed to to restoring 2% inflation on a sustained basis. And we will do that. At the same time, we've got to weigh the risks to the two goals. And I would say since really since April, to me, the risks of higher and more persistent inflation have probably become a little less. And that's partly because the labor market has softened, GDP growth has slowed. And so I would just say that the risks there have been less than than one might think, and in terms of the labor market, what we're seeing is it's unemployment is still low, it's still a relatively low rate, but we're seeing downside risks."
• Asked about not using the previously-used term "recalibration" to describe today's rate cut, Powell says: "We're in a meeting by meeting situation." Versus the SEP projections, "the actual decisions we make are going to be based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks at the time the decisions are actually made." He highlights the Dot Plot split between 10 of 19 who saw 2 or more cuts and 9 who saw fewer, so "there are different possible outcomes and likelihoods".
• Yet more questions about Fed independence - Powell says "it's deeply in our culture to do our work based on the incoming data and never consider anything else". Asked about Lisa Cook's case, he says it would be inappropriate for him to comment.

• RES 4: 114-10   High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 3: 114-10   1.0% 10-dma envelope / High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 2: 114-00   Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 113-29   High Sep 11
• PRICE:‌‌ 113-07+ @ 19:43 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: 112-28   20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 112-05+ 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 110-25   Low Aug 1 

Treasury futures are trading lower today - a corrective pullback and a bull-mode condition remains intact. Note that the recent impulsive rally signalled an acceleration of the uptrend. Also, moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. This suggests scope for an extension through 114-00 next and a test of 114-10, the Apr 7 high (cont). Initial firm support to watch is 112-28, the 20-day EMA.