FRANCE AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
France has announced it will be looking to sell a combined E10.0-11.5bln of the following LT OATs at...
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GILT AUCTION RESULTS: 4.375% Mar-28 Gilt
| 4.375% Mar-28 Gilt | Previous | |
| Amount | GBP5.00bln | GBP5.00bln |
| Avg yield | 3.991% | 3.941% |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.16x | 3.71x |
| Tail | 0.2bp | 0.2bp |
| Avg price | 100.913 | 101.062 |
| Low price | 100.908 | 101.057 |
| Pre-auction mid | 100.895 | 101.039 |
| Previous date | 29-Jul-25 |
FOREX: EURUSD Weakness Extending Below 50-Day EMA Support
- Although EURUSD weakness on Wednesday has primarily been driven by broader dollar dynamics, the French political situation will be adding weight. The latest polling from Ifop found a large majority of respondents in favour of the dissolution of the National Assembly and snap legislative elections. In total, 63% of respondents favoured dissolution. Data from Polymarket shows bettors assigning a 20% implied probability that fresh elections are called by 15 September, rising to 41% by year-end.
- Latest price action has seen EURUSD extend below its 50-day EMA at 1.1600, with momentum building below last week’s lows of 1.1583 as short-term positions post-Powell are pressured. Noted pressure on European equities will be providing an additional Euro headwind.
- A clear break and close below the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 1.1528 (Aug 05 low) initially, and potentially setup a move to key medium-term support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low.
- Although moves for the likes of EURGBP and EURJPY have been more moderate, moves below the Aug 14 lows at 0.8597 and 170.97 would provide bearish impetus. For EURJPY, key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 170.56, an average spot has not traded below since May 27.
COMMODITIES: Medium-Term Trend Condition for Gold Remains Bullish
A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest round of short-term gains appear corrective - for now. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has recently been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high. Gold traded higher Tuesday. The medium-term trend condition remains bullish - MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The sideways direction that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a pause in the uptrend. A stronger resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. First key support to watch is $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.
- WTI Crude down $0.23 or -0.36% at $63.01
- Natural Gas up $0 or +0.11% at $2.72
- Gold spot down $9.55 or -0.28% at $3384.05
- Copper down $4.5 or -0.99% at $449
- Silver down $0.23 or -0.6% at $38.3795
- Platinum down $10.8 or -0.8% at $1344.75
