EURJPY TECHS: Northbound
* RES 4: 171.88 High Jul 19 '24 * RES 3: 171.28 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swin...
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BONDS: EUREX PACE ROLL (Updated)
- As mentioned in the Bund opening comment, the June expiry is still front Month, but expect for September to be at the end of Day.
- Eurex spreads have dominated at the start of the Week, which makes sense given the Busy Week still ahead.
ROLL PACE (as of Yesterday):
- Buxl: 66%.
- Bund: 68%.
- Bobl: 67%.
- Schatz: 73%.
- BTP: 70%.
- BTS: 76%.
- OAT: 67%.
STIR: Services PMIs Shouldnt Have Much Impact On Sentiment Ahead of ECB
The May services PMIs are due this morning (final reads for France, Germany and the Eurozone), but the readings shouldn’t have much impact on EUR STIR pricing with tomorrow’s ECB decision in focus. ECB-dated OIS continue to price 57bps of easing through year-end. Immediate focus at tomorrow’s decision will be on implied pricing through July, where 31bps of easing are priced.
- Euribor futures are little changed through the blues versus yesterday's settlement levels.
- In recent months, services PMI sentiment has been softening while manufacturing has been steadily improving (despite tariff-related fears). This is one source of ECB concern around downside Eurozone growth risks, with the services sector a much larger share of total value added compared to manufacturing.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jun-25 | 1.926 | -24.6 |
| Jul-25 | 1.862 | -31.0 |
| Sep-25 | 1.725 | -44.7 |
| Oct-25 | 1.683 | -49.0 |
| Dec-25 | 1.600 | -57.2 |
| Feb-26 | 1.576 | -59.6 |
| Mar-26 | 1.558 | -61.4 |
| Apr-26 | 1.561 | -61.1 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
AUDUSD TECHS: Still Looking For Gains
- RES 4: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6537 High May 26
- PRICE: 0.6462 @ 08:03 BST Jun 4
- SUP 1: 0.6392 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
- SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
AUDUSD continues to trade in a range. Trend signals are bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Key support lies at 0.6392, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. This signals scope for a climb to 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement.
