JAPAN: Nikkei: Takaichi Nomination Likely To Be Delayed
Latest from Nikkei: "Sanae Takaichi's economic measures delayed; Prime Minister nomination likely in late month; direct impact on US-China diplomacy"
"LDP President Sanae Takaichi is continuing coalition talks to form a new government. An agreement with the Komeito Party has been postponed, which is unusual, and the nomination of a prime minister is likely to be delayed until late October. The passage of the fiscal 2025 supplementary budget, which includes measures to combat rising prices, by the end of the year is looking increasingly difficult, which will have an impact on the diplomatic schedule."
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STIR: Payrolls Rally Broadly Consolidated With Tue-Thu Data Eyed
- Fed Funds implied rates are little changed since Friday’s close, holding what was only a modest paring of the rally on a soft payrolls report at the time.
- It sees close to three consecutive cuts priced to year-end, with only limited odds of a 50bp cut next week (~10%).
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 27.5bp Sep, 47bp Oct, 69.5bp Dec, 83.5bp Jan and 98.5bp Mar.
- The SOFR implied terminal yield of 2.86% (SFRH7) is 1bp lower from Friday as it sits a little off 150bp of cuts ahead from current levels. The yield is only 2.5bp lower than levels just prior to the NFP release after rates rallied into the release.
- It’s a quieter start to the week before preliminary payrolls benchmark revisions, PPI and CPI over Tue-Thu. The Fed is now in media blackout ahead of the FOMC meeting on Sep 16-17.
LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: NY Fed Inflation Exp, Consumer Credit
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 09/08 1100 NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations (3.09%, --)
- 09/08 1130 US Tsy $82B 13W & $73B 26W bill auctions
- 09/08 1500 Consumer Credit $7.371B, $10.2B)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
FRANCE: Result of No-confidence Vote Not Expected Till 1900CET At The Earliest
Local and political media outlets report that the result of the French no-confidence vote is not expected to be known until 1900CET (1800BST) at the earliest.
- PM Bayrou in theory has an unlimited amount of time to deliver his general policy address at 1400BST/1500CET.
- Following this address, speakers from each parliamentary group (eleven in total) will provide remarks. Speaking times depend on the number of seats each group holds in the National Assembly. From Le Figaro:
- Ensenble Group: 35 mins
- RN, DR and MODEM (Bayrou's party): 15 mins
- Other groups (fewer than 35 deputies): 10 mins:
- Speaker for non-registered deputies: 5 mins
- Following these speeches, Bayrou will then be able to speak again before votes begin.
- Le Parisien highlights that "The debates surrounding his previous general policy statement, on January 14, lasted approximately five hours, without a vote"
