BOJ: Nikkei Suggest Rates To Be Held Steady On Friday - More Interest In October
Sep-17 11:15
"*BOJ EXPECTED TO HOLD RATES STEADY AT MEETING THIS WEEK: NIKKEI" Bloomberg
No big surprises there with that Nikkei headline (story here ) - there's much more interest in the BOJ decisions later this year (October, December).
- The MNI Policy Team highlighted that BOJ officials will pay close attention to the September Tankan results on Oct 1.
- Economists predict the Bank of Japan’s September Tankan survey will show a modest improvement in benchmark business sentiment from three months ago, with capital investment plans by major firms for fiscal 2025 likely to remain solid.
- While supportive for the BOJ in seeking opportunities to raise the policy rate, the results alone are unlikely to be decisive for a hike at the October meeting. Uncertainty over trade policy continues, though the July 22 Japan-U.S. trade deal is expected to help lift sentiment.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Remains Above Support
Aug-18 11:12
- On the commodity front, a bull cycle in Gold remains intact and this is highlighted by moving average studies that remain in a bull-mode position. The sideways trend that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a corrective phase. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, first support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.
- In the oil space, WTI futures remain in a clear bear cycle and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. A key support at $62.84, the Jun 24 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $58,17 the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $70.51, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $64.94, the 50-day EMA.
EGB OPTIONS: Bund Put Buyer
Aug-18 11:10
RXU5 127 puts, paper pays 2.0 in 3.625k
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Trend Outlook Remains Intact
Aug-18 11:03
- RES 4: 113-23 76.4% retracement of the Sep’24 - Jan’25 sell-off
- RES 3: 113-07 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
- RES 2: 112-23 High May 1
- RES 1: 112-15+ High Aug 5
- PRICE: 111-25+ @ 11:52 BST Aug 18
- SUP 1: 111-10+ 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 110-23+/08+ Low Aug 1 / Low Jul 15 & 16
- SUP 3: 110-03 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 4: 109-28 Low Jun 6 and 11
The underlying bullish theme in Treasury futures remains intact, supported by the recent clearance of the bull trigger at 112-12+, the Jul 1 high. A resumption of gains would open 112-23, the May 1 high and the next important resistance. Above 112-23, retracement levels are layered between 113-07 and 113-23. On the downside, key support is 110-08+, the low on Jul 15 and 16. First important support lies at 110-23+, the Aug 1 low.
