EURJPY TECHS: Narrows Gap With Key Resistance

Jun-06 18:30
  • RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
  • RES 3: 166.92 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 2: 166.10 High Nov 6         
  • RES 1: 165.29 High May 13 and bull trigger 
  • PRICE: 165.05 @ 15:59 BST Jun 6 
  • SUP 1: 162.66/161.09 50-day EMA / Low May 23 and key support
  • SUP 2: 160.99 Low Apr 22  
  • SUP 3: 160.01 50% Retracement Feb’25 - May’25 Upleg
  • SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9  

The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The latest recovery from the May 23 low, signals the end of a corrective phase between May 13 - 23. Key short-term support lies at 161.09, the May 23 low, where a break is required to highlight a stronger reversal and suggest scope for a deeper correction. Sights are on 165.21, the May 13 high and bull trigger. A break would resume the uptrend.   

Historical bullets

STIR: Contained Reaction To FOMC Announcement

May-07 18:27
  • Having rallied into the FOMC reaction on tariff headlines, rates reaction is relatively contained following the FOMC statement.
  • Fed Funds implied rates are 0.5-3.5bp lower for 2025 meetings.
  • That includes levels that imply 82bp of cuts for 2025 as a whole but that still has near enough an entire 25bp cut omitted vs pre ISM mfg levels from Thursday.
  • Cumulative cuts from an assumed 4.33% effective: 7.5bp Jun, 24bp Jul, 45bp Sep, 63bp Oct and 82bp Dec.
  • SOFR implied yields are up to 3bps lower post-announcement, led by the Mar 2026.
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US TSY OPTIONS: Jun'25 10Y Call Sale

May-07 18:23
  • -11,500 TYM5 113 calls, 11 ref 111-16

STIR: Dec'25 SOFR Midcurve Call Spread Sale

May-07 18:21
  • -5,000 0QZ5 97.50/98.00 call spds 9.0 ref 96.90