MEXICO: MXN Consolidates Weekly Advance, Oct Unemployment Rate Expected to Dip
Nov-28 11:49
- Firmer equity indices and a softer dollar this week have worked in favour of the Mexican peso, allowing USDMXN to edge back towards the lower end of the most recent 18.20-78 range. With that said, daily ranges through the second half of the week have been extremely contained amid the US Thanksgiving holiday.
- We take a deeper dive into the longer-term USDMXN trend in MNI’s Tech Trend Monitor, which was sent out earlier today: https://mni.marketnews.com/48nuO63
- We noted yesterday that should President Sheinbaum attend the football world cup draw, there could be a meeting with President Trump. It had been reported that Mexico was working to conclude the current stage of trade talks with the US this month, Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard recently said in an interview.
- However, given that trade talks between the US and Canada remain stalled, the hopes of any imminent announcement of significant progress may be fading, placing even more focus on the upcoming USMCA review.
- President Sheinbaum may discuss Attorney General Alejandro Gertz Manero’s resignation as Mexico’s lead prosecutor at her daily press conference today. On the data calendar, the unemployment rate in October is expected to dip to 2.78% from 2.98%, while net outstanding loans data are also scheduled.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Remains Above The 50-Day EMA For Now
Oct-29 11:40
- On the commodity front, Gold traded lower Tuesday, extending the bear cycle that started Oct 20. Note that the trend has recently been in overbought territory and the deeper retracement is allowing this condition to unwind. Attention is on the next key support at the 50-day EMA, at $3842.8. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bear theme. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.
- Recent gains in WTI futures appear corrective for now, however, note that price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at $61.10 The breach of this average signals scope for a stronger recovery. A resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has also been pierced. A clear break of it would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $55.96, the Low Oct 20.
SONIA OPTIONS: Call Condor buyer
Oct-29 11:37
SFIH6 96.70/96.75/96.80/96.85c condor, bought for half in 7.5k.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In GBPUSD Remains Present
Oct-29 11:27
- In FX, support to watch in EURUSD is 1.1542, the Oct 9 low. Clearance of this level is required to cancel a recent bullish signal and this would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Sep 17. A break would open 1.1516, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg, and clearance of 1.1516 would expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. Price needs to trade above 1.1728, the Oct 17 high, to strengthen a bull theme.
- A bear threat in GBPUSD remains present and this week’s sell-off strengthens this theme. The pair has breached 1.3249, the Oct 14 low and a bear trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 17 and sights are on 1.3220 next (pierced), a 0.764 projection of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing. The break lower has also exposed key support at 1.3142, Aug 1 low. Initial resistance is 1.3377, the 20-day EMA.
- The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Attention is on key resistance at 153.27, the Oct 10 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. This would open 153.82, a 1.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a primary uptrend. First important support to watch lies at 151.19, the 20-day EMA.
