EU TRANSPORTATION: Mundy's: Fitch Upgrade

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28 
• RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 148.52 High Aug 12 
• PRICE: 147.31 @ 07:13 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 146.21 Low Aug 14
• SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
• SUP 3: 145.47 100-dma
• SUP 4: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug Upleg

USDJPY remains in consolidation mode. A bearish threat is present as the pair trades closer to its recent lows. Sights are on support at 145.86, the Jul 24 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger S/T reversal and strengthen the bearish engulfing signal on Aug 1. This would open 144.69, a trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 148.52, the Aug 12 high. A breach of it would be viewed as a bull signal.

• Headline just 7 hundredths above the BOE's forecast
• Air fares alone added 11 hundredths to headline CPI and accommodation 9 hundredths. That more than accounts for the upside surprise alone and is unlikely to be persistent (although accommodation may surprise to the upside again next month with Oasis in Edinburgh and the Fringe coinciding).
• Those categories alone accounted for a 4 tenth increase in services CPI, which only came in 10 hundredths above the BOE's forecast.
• Food and non-alcoholic beverages were 21 hundredths above the BOE's forecast.
• Energy only a marginal surprise for the BOE (larger surprise for consensus as we flagged the possibility of as it didn't appear consensus took into account the methodology change this year).
• So all in all, this print is nowhere near as concerning as it appears at first glance.
• GBPUSD is now only 5 pips above its pre-CPI levels.

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 121.13 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 120.39 @ Close Aug 19
• SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support         
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged and the outlook remains bullish. However, for now, the contract is trading inside a range and the Aug 15 sell-off signals scope for a move towards the lower end of the range. Key support to watch lies at 119.59, the Jul 25 low. A clear break of this level would mark a range breakout and highlight a bearish threat. Key resistance is unchanged at 121.73, the Jun 13 high