USDCAD TECHS: Moving Average Studies Highlight A Downtrend
May-21 20:00
- RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 3: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 1: 1.4016/17 High May 12 / 13 / 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3827 @ 16:28 BST May 21
- SUP 1: 1.3814/3751 Low May 8 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
The trend condition in USDCAD remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance to watch is 1.4017, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this hurdle would signal a stronger reversal and open 1.4111, the Apr 4 high.
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US TSYS: Tariff Tied Headline Risk & Fed Independence Meddling
Apr-21 19:42
- Treasuries look to finish mostly lower Monday, curves twist steeper as the short end outperforms a sell-off in the long end, risk sentiment hampered as stocks hold at or near session lows.
- Headline risk continues to rattle markets, latest focus partially tied to headlines that the WH is in the process of replacing Sec of Defense Hegseth following reports of another Signal Chat leak made the rounds. Politico reported GOP Rep Bacon said "Hegseth should Go". Conversely, WH Press Sec Leavitt just said the NPR report is false.
- Global trade remains the greater concerns, markets await something concrete in tariff negotiations vs. hopes and promises that talks with dozens of countries is going well, while Pres Trump berates Fed Chairman Powell and reiterating a call for "preemptive cuts".
- Curves near late highs: 2s10s currently +13.246 65.492 vs. 66.377 high, 5s30s +8.604 at 94.411. Jun'25 10Y futures -13.5 at 110-24 vs. late overnight low of 110-22. Technical at 110-15/109-08 (Low Apr 15 / 11 and the bear trigger). In turn, projected rate hike pricing gain momentum vs. morning levels (*) as follows: May'25 at -4bp (-3.4bp), Jun'25 at -19.8bp (-19bp), Jul'25 at -43.6bp (-40.1bp), Sep'25 -63.4bp (-59.9bp).
- Stocks reacting negatively, extending lows with SPX eminis slipping to 5127.25 low, Consume Discretionary and IT sectors underperforming. US$ broadly weaker, BBG index -8.47 at 1216.21.
- Tuesday Data Calendar: several Fed speakers, Richmond Fed data and Tsy $69B 2Y Note Sale.
US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Hugging Lows
Apr-21 18:54
- Stocks are holding near deep session lows in late Monday trade, Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology sectors continue to underperform with lack of clarity and communication over trade negotiations widely sited.
- Currently, the DJIA trades down 1258.06 points (-3.21%) at 37884.8, S&P E-Minis down 180.5 points (-3.4%) at 5132 (April 10 lows, still off April 7 low of 4832.00, The Nasdaq down 596.8 points (-3.7%) at 15689.37.
- Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors continued to underperform, semiconductor makers primarily weighing on the IT sector: Super Micro Computer -7.60%, Arista Networks -6.04%, NVIDIA -5.76%, Palo Alto Networks -5.47%, Oracle -5.41% and Broadcom -4.91%.
- The Consumer Staples sector weighed down by Tesla -6.91%, DoorDash -5.87%,Chipotle Mexican Grill -4.48%, Carnival -4.22%, Ross Stores -4.01% and TJX Cos -3.93%.
- A mix of Financials, interactive media and pharmaceuticals outperformed in late trade: Discover Financial Services +3.34%, Fidelity National Information +3.00%, Netflix +1.40%, Moderna +1.34% and Dollar General +1.15%.
- Equity earnings resume after the close: Hexcel Corp, Medpace Holdings Inc, W R Berkley Corp, AGNC Investment Corp and Western Alliance Bancorp reporting.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update, $5B American Express 4Pt Priced
Apr-21 18:25
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 04/21 $5B *American Express $1.6B 4NC3 +98, $400M 4NC3 SOFR+126, $1.5B 6NC5 +108, $1.5B 11NC10 +128
- 04/21 $700M Excelerate Energy 5NC2
- 04/21 $2B QXO Inc. 7NC3 investor calls
