AUDUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support

• RES 4: 0.7208 61.8% of the Feb 25 ‘21 - Apr 9 ‘25 bear leg   
• RES 3: 0.7186 2.236 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 - 18 price swing
• RES 2: 0.7158 High Feb 2 2023
• RES 1: 0.7136 High Feb 11
• PRICE: 0.7125 @ 16:52 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: 0.7007 Low Feb 9 
• SUP 2: 0.6897 Low Feb 6 and key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 0.6834 Low Jan 23 
• SUP 4: 0.6797 50-day EMA

The bull theme in AUDUSD remains intact and today’s fresh cycle high, reinforces current conditions and confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend. The break higher opens 0.7168 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial key support lies at 0.6897, the Feb 6 low.  

SOFR Call interest gained in the second half, while Treasury options saw a surge of low delta midcurve puts at midday. Underlying futures weaker, but well off this morning's post-NFP lows. Projected rate cut pricing cooling significantly vs. late Tuesday levels (*): Mar'26 at -1.5bp (-5.2bp), Apr'26 at -5.6bp (-11.6bp), Jun'26 at -17.9bp (-26.3bp), Jul'26 at -26.6bp (-35.6bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • +10,000 SFRN6 96.68/96.81/96.93/97.06 call condors vs. 96.50 put, 0.0 net
  • +4,000 SFRM6 96.31/96.43/96.56/96.68put condors, 5.25
  • -5,000 SFRJ6 96.75/96.87 call spds, 1.0 ref 96.55
  • +10,000 SFRU6 96.75/97.00/97.25 call fly 2.75 over SFRH6 96.37 calls
  • +4,000 SFRU6/SFRZ6 96.31/96.43 put spd spd, 0.0 net
  • Update, +12,000 SFRJ6 96.56/96.68/96.81 call flys, 1.5 ref 96.54
  • -4,000 SFRZ6 96.75 straddles, 43.5-42.5
  • -2,500 SFRJ6 97.12 calls, 1.0
  • over 10,000 SFRG6 96.37/96.43 3x2 put spds
  • Block, 5,000 SFRG6 96.43/96.50 call spds, 1.25
  • over 7,700 SFRG6 96.56 calls, cab
  • 6,000 SFRM6 96.50 puts, 0.5 ref 96.635
  • -2,500 SFRG6 96.31/96.37/96.43/96.50 put condors, 4.5
  • Block/screen, over 8,000 SFRH6 96.37 straddles, 8.5
  • +3,500 SFRZ6 96.75/96.81 strangles, 44.75
  • 3,000 SFRH6 96.37/96.43/96.50 put trees, 2.75
  • +3,000 SFRH6 96.56/96.68 call spds, 1.0 vs 96.42/0.10%
  • 4,000 SFRG6 96.37/96.43 2x1 put spds, 3.25
  • +4,000 SFRM6 96.37 puts, 1.0
  • -4,000 SFRG6 96.43/96.50 call spds, 1
  • +5,000 0QG6 96.81 puts, 1.5
  • +5,000 SFRH6 96.37/96.43/96.50 call flys, 0.5
  • 2,000 SFRU6 95.87/96.37 put spds ref 96.825
  • +4,000 0QH6 97.06/97.18 call spds, 2.0 ref 96.905
  • 2,950 SFRH6 96.43 puts ref 96.41
• Treasury Options:
  • -15,000 wk4 TY 113/114 1x2 call spds, 2.0 vs. 112-06.5/0.05%
  • 4,000 TYH6 112.5/113.251x2 call spds
  • +18,000 TYJ6 111.5 puts, 22 vs. 112-08.5/0.34%
  • -15,000 TYH6 112 puts, 8 vs. 112-09/0.33%
  • +35,000 TYJ6 111.5/112.5 strangles, 53-52
  • +100,000 wk4 TY 109.5 puts, cab-7
  • +6,000 wk2 TY 112 puts, 5 vs 112-04.5/0.20%
  • over 50,000 wk2 TY 112.25 puts
  • -12,000 TYJ6 112 calls, 39 vs. 112-00/0.39%
  • 9,000 TYJ6 114 calls, 8 vs. 112-00.5
  • 2,000 FVJ6 108.75/109.75 strangles, ref 109-09.75
  • 3,000 TYH6 111.75/113.25 strangles
  • -2,000 TYH6 112.5 puts, 20 vs. 112-16.5/0.46%
  • over +5,000 TYH6 112 puts, 7
  • +3,500 TYH6 111.5 puts, 3 vs. 112-11/0.07%
  • -2,000 TYJ6 112.5/114 call spds 24 vs. 112-13.5/0.28%
  • +4,000 FVH6 109.25 puts, 11.5
  • -2,750 USJ6 115 puts, 60
  • 8,500 Wed/wkly 112/112.25 put spds, 4 (exp today)
  • +3,000 USJ6 114/116 put spds, 48
  • -2,000 TYH6 111.5/112.5 call spds, 47
  • +3,000 FVJ6 107.75/108.5 put spds, 6.5 ref 109-11
  • 4,850 FVH6 108.25 puts, .5 ref 109-12
  • +5,900 TYJ6 109.5 puts, 3 ref 112-14.5
  • -2,000 TYH6 110.75/111.75 call spds, 61

• RES 4: 188.93 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 ‘25 low
• RES 3: 187.71 3.000 proj of the Oct 17 - Oct 30 - Nov 5 price swing
• RES 2: 186.87 High Jan 23 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 184.29/186.36 20-day EMA / High Feb 9
• PRICE: 181.92 @ 16:50 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: 181.79/56 Low Jan 26 and a keyS/T support / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 181.57 Low Dec 17
• SUP 3: 180.80 Base of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 ‘25 low
• SUP 4: 179.77 Low Nov 21  

The sharp sell-off in EURJPY from Monday’s high has resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Today’s extension has seen the cross pierce key short-term support at 181.79, the Jan 26 low, where a break would strengthen a bearish threat and expose bull channel support at 180.80. The channel is drawn from the Feb 28 ‘25 low and represents an important key M/T support. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 186.87, the Jan 23 high.