USDJPY TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 149.81 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 147.61/149.14 20-day EMA / High Sep 3
- PRICE: 147.43 @ 06:59 BST Sep 10
- SUP 1: 146.21 Low Aug 14
- SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
- SUP 3: 145.53 Trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low
- SUP 4: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
USDJPY continues to trade inside a range. Attention is on key short-term support at 146.21, the Aug 14 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would highlight a stronger bearish threat and highlight a range breakout. This would expose 145.40, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, clearance of 149.14, the Sep 3 high is required to reinstate a bullish theme. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
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EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply
Finland and Germany are due to hold auctions this week. We pencil in issuance of just E6.5bln in the week, down from E24.5bln last week.
- Finland will kick off issuance for the week tomorrow with a conventional auction. On offer will be up to a combined E1.5bln of the 3.00% Sep-35 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000587415) and the 0.25% Sep-40 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000440557).
- Germany will come to the market on Wednesday with E5bln of the 10-year 2.60% Aug-35 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z056).
- Cancelled auction: The MEF has announced that it will not hold the 3/7/15+ year BTP auction that had been scheduled for 13 August. This is in line with recent convention and is not unexpected. The MEF noted that this decision was taken “considering the cash management activity”.
NOMINAL FLOWS: This week sees E43.9bln of redemptions, of which E30.5bln is from a formerly 10-year Bund and E13.4bln from a formerly 3-year BTP. Coupon payments for the week total E6.3bln of which E5.5bln are German and E0.8bln are Italian. This leaves estimated net flows for the week strongly negative at negative E43.8bln, versus positive E23.5bln last week.
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