USDCAD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The Channel Top

Nov-07 08:12
  • RES 4: 1.4274 High Apr 9  
  • RES 3: 1.4200 Round number resistance
  • RES 2: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
  • RES 1: 1.4143 Channel top drawn from Jul 23 low & High Nov 5
  • PRICE: 1.4114 @ 08:11 GMT Nov 7
  • SUP 1: 1.4019 20-day EMA 
  • SUP 2: 1.3948 50-day EMA 
  • SUP 3: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support  
  • SUP 4: 1.3867 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low

A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact. and this week’s extension strengthens current conditions. The pair has breached 1.4080, the Oct 16 high to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 1.4143, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low. It remains intact, however, a clear break of it would open 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First support lies at 1.4019, the 20-day EMA.

Historical bullets

SOFR: SFRZ6/H7 Lifted

Oct-08 08:11

SFRZ6/H7 paper paid -0.5 on ~6.6K, taken bid over for the balance of an 8K order, with another ~1.1K lots trading on the follow. Small bid left.

FRANCE: Suspension Of Pension Reform Would Risk Intra-Coalition Rancour

Oct-08 08:04

Caretaker Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu, speaking outside Matignon after the first day of meetings with various political parties in an effort to break through the country's political paralysis, claims that "talks so far are showing a willingness to get this budget through by year-end". Lecornu will present his findings to President Emmanuel Macron later this evening. Adds, "Reducing the deficit is key for France's credibility."

  • As noted earlier, there have been some signals that the caretaker administration is considering rolling back Macron's flagship pension reforms in order to gain support from the centre-left Socialist Party (PS).
  • Lecornu says that among parties of the centre and centre right, "there is a desire to have a budget for France before December 31 of this year," adding, "This desire creates a movement and a convergence, obviously, which removes the prospects of dissolution."
  • The caretaker PM meets with representatives of the PS at 09:00BST/10:00CET, the environmentalist Ecologists at 11:15BST/12:15CET and the left-wing Communists later in the day.
  • Education Minister and former PM Elisabeth Borne's raising of the prospect of suspending the 2023 pension reform may draw PS support for a budget, but risks rancour with the right of the governing coalition. Arnaud Pericard, spokesperson for the centre-right Horizons, said to FranceInfo, "I understand that it is being put forward, but it is not a good idea," with the conservative Les Republicans (LR) also likely to object. Should Horizons and LR vote down (rather than abstain) on any repeal, their votes would outweigh those of the PS. 

EQUITY OPTIONS: Record Put Spread Option in Aston Martin

Oct-08 08:02

AML (19th Dec) 68/58ps 1x2, bought for 2 and 3 in 100k (100k x 200k).