USDCAD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance
May-08 06:54
* RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1 * RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7 * RES 2: 1.4046 50-day EMA * RES 1: 1.3895 20-...
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STIR: Euribor Futures Soften Alongside Bunds; Tariff Developments Key As Ever
Apr-08 06:53
Euribor futures are -1.5 to -2.5 ticks through the blues versus yesterday’s settlement levels, softening alongside Bunds amid a modest stabilisation of risk yesterday evening. With today’s regional data calendar light, focus remains squarely on further tariff-related headlines.
- ERZ5 is -1.5 ticks at 98.215, after briefly reaching a multi-month high of 98.335 in yesterday’s session.
- ECB-dated OIS continue to assign a ~90% implied probability of a 25bp rate cut at next Thursday’s decision, while 77bps of cuts are priced through year-end vs 78bps at yesterday’s close.
- Holzmann ECB’s (hawk) and Cipollone (dove) are scheduled to speak today. Holzmann has repeatedly noted in recent weeks that he no longer views policy rates as restrictive, and would consider voting for a hold in April.
- Meanwhile, Cipollone has previously warned of the disinflationary impact of Chinese trade diversion following US tariffs, alongside continued worries around the Eurozone growth outlook.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Apr-25 | 2.193 | -22.1 |
| Jun-25 | 1.976 | -43.8 |
| Jul-25 | 1.865 | -54.9 |
| Sep-25 | 1.747 | -66.7 |
| Oct-25 | 1.706 | -70.8 |
| Dec-25 | 1.647 | -76.7 |
| Feb-26 | 1.637 | -77.8 |
| Mar-26 | 1.633 | -78.1 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
US TSY FLOWS: Block trade
Apr-08 06:52
Block trade, suggest seller:
- TYM5 ~2.1k at 112.03.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call fly seller
Apr-08 06:50
ERU5 99.25/95.62/100.00c fly, sold at 0.25 in 15k.
Trending Top
May-09 05:50
