EM ASIA CREDIT: Mongolian Mining (MONMIN, B3/NR/B+) new $ deal

RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 5bps softer across 2025 meetings today but remains 2-4bps firmer than last Tuesday’s pre-RBA levels. 

• Last Thursday, January employment was higher than expected rising 44k driven by a 54.1k rise in full-time jobs. As expected, the unemployment rate still ticked up 0.1pp to 4.1% but was driven by a new record participation rate up 0.1pp to 67.3%.
• This data came after RBA Governor Bullock noted on Tuesday the labour market’s unexpected strength and cautioned that market expectations for further rate cuts are not guaranteed.
• A 25bp rate cut in April is given a 10% probability, with a cumulative 48bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 4.09%). 

Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Today Vs. Pre-RBA Levels

Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

USD losses have continued in the first part of Monday trade. The BBDXY index is now off around 0.25%, last near 1283. EUR and EU related currencies are outperforming. 

• EUR/USD was last testing back above 1.0500. Recent highs were at 1.0514, while Jan highs printed at 1.0533 (which is seen as a reversal trigger). German equity and bond futures have opened after the weekend election results, which were largely as expected. DAX futures were lower in early dealings but have now recovered and back in positive territory.
• NOK is up 0.50%, with SEK just trailing. USD/NOK was last near 11.09. USD/SEK was near 10.6050
• JPY and CHF were laggards in the first part of trade but have caught up some ground. USD/JPY has hit lows of 148.85, just under Friday lows of 148.93. We have stabilized somewhat though. USD/CNH was last under 0.8970.
• AUD and NZD are holding gains, but aren't outperforming the EU bloc moves, with both currencies up a more modest 0.20% (similar to JPY and CHF gains). 

Flows were mixed last week, with Taiwan seeing about $1b of inflows, with $615m coming on Friday. India erased roughly half of Wednesday large inflow, to post another week out outflows.

• South Korea: Recorded -$63m in outflows Friday, bringing the 5-day total to -$329m. YTD flows remain negative at -$1.694b. The 5-day average is -$66m, better than the 20-day average of -$82m but worse than the 100-day average of -$106m.
• Taiwan: Posted $615m in inflows Friday, bringing the 5-day total to $1.003b. YTD flows remain negative at -$2.037b. The 5-day average is $201m, better than the 20-day average of $74m and the 100-day average of -$49m.
• India: Recorded -$405m in outflows Thursday, bringing the 5-day total to -$535m. YTD outflows remain heavy at -$11.142b. The 5-day average is -$107m, better than the 20-day average of -$234m and the 100-day average of -$226m.
• Indonesia: Posted -$43m in outflows Friday, bringing the 5-day total to -$71m. YTD flows remain negative at -$718m. The 5-day average is -$14m, better than the 20-day average of -$26m and the 100-day average of -$33m.
• Thailand: Saw -$21m in outflows Friday, reducing the 5-day total to $64m in net inflows. YTD flows remain negative at -$225m. The 5-day average is $13m, better than the 20-day average of $3m and the 100-day average of -$19m.
• Malaysia: Registered -$19m in outflows Friday, bringing the 5-day total to -$127m. YTD flows are negative at -$912m. The 5-day average is -$25m, worse than the 20-day average of -$22m and in line with the 100-day average of -$27m.
• Philippines: Recorded -$7m in outflows Friday, bringing the 5-day total to -$47m. YTD flows remain negative at -$176m. The 5-day average is -$9m, worse than the 20-day average of -$4m and the 100-day average of -$5m.

Table 1: EM Asia Equity Flows