MNI Eurozone Inflation Preview – December 2025

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Silent Night for Prices Keeping ECB On Hold

• The Eurozone December flash inflation round is split across three weeks due to the holiday period. Following Belgium which printed already last Tuesday, Spain is scheduled to release data on December 30 ahead of Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy following over the course of the following week.
• Overall, analysts expect only limited moves in the Eurozone aggregate measures. Headline HICP is expected to recede marginally, to around 2.0% Y/Y (2.1% prior), while core is seen unchanged at 2.4%.
• Across categories, analysts expect the main mover again to be energy, which is seen coming down further into deflationary territory on a Y/Y basis to around -1.5% amid falling oil and gas prices.
• None of the remaining categories are seen to provide major impetus in December, with services roughly stable around 3.5%, food / alcohol / tobacco marginally firmer at 2.5%, and core goods remaining subdued at around 0.5%.