MNI US OPEN - Trump's Goal Said to Be to Buy Greenland
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- RUBIO TELLS LAWMAKERS TRUMP AIMS TO BUY GREENLAND, DOWNPLAYS MILITARY ACTION: WSJ
- TRUMP DEMANDS VENEZUELA KICK OUT CHINA AND RUSSIA: ABC
- CHINA ESCALATES FEUD WITH JAPAN, PROBES CHIPMAKING MATERIAL
- EUROZONE UNROUNDED HICP CLOSE TO MNI TRACKING AT +1.96% Y/Y
Figure 1: AUD/NZD hits fresh multi-year high
Source: MNI, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
NEWS
US (WSJ): Rubio Tells Lawmakers Trump Aims to Buy Greenland, Downplays Military Action
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers that recent administration threats against Greenland didn’t signal an imminent invasion and that the goal is to buy the island from Denmark, according to people familiar with the discussions. Rubio’s statements, which were made Monday during a closed briefing, come as the White House has been offering increasingly belligerent statements about controlling the island. President Trump and senior administration officials have publicly declined to rule out seizing the territory by force.
US (BBG): Trump Won’t Rule Out Military Force to Acquire Greenland
President Donald Trump won’t rule out the use of military force to acquire Greenland, the White House said, escalating tension with Denmark, a fellow NATO member, over a dispute that’s surged back into public view following the ouster of Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro. Trump is considering many ways of achieving his goal of acquiring the Arctic island, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement.
US/VENEZUELA (ABC): Trump Demands Venezuela Kick Out China and Russia, Partner Only With US on Oil
The Trump administration has told Venezuela's interim president Delcy Rodriguez that the regime must meet the White House's demands before being allowed to pump more oil, according to three people familiar with the administration's plan. First, the country must kick out China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba and sever economic ties, the sources said. Second, Venezuela must agree to partner exclusively with the U.S. on oil production and favor America when selling heavy crude oil, they added.
US/VENEZUELA (BBG): Trump Says Venezuela to Give 30-50 Million Barrels of Oil to US
US President Donald Trump said that Venezuela would turn over 30 million to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the US. The “interim authorities” of Venezuela will be turning over the “high quality, sanctioned oil to the United States of America,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
US/CHINA/VENEZUELA (BBG): China Slams US ‘Bullying’ Over Pressure on Venezuela to Cut Ties
China criticized the Trump administration’s reported call for Venezuela to sever its alliances with US rivals, labeling the move a “bullying act” as their competition for influence in the region emerges as a new source of friction. “The US’s blatant use of force against Venezuela and asking the country to favor America when handling its own oil resources — this is a typical bullying act,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning told reporters at a regular briefing in Beijing on Wednesday. “Let me stress that China and other countries have legitimate rights in Venezuela, which must be protected.”
US/RUSSIA (MNI): Risks Abound as US Tracks Russian-Flagged Tanker in North Atlantic
A standoff could be developing in the North Atlantic, with at least one Russian naval vessel having been dispatched to guard an empty oil tanker that may be a target for US military interception, according to NYT reports. The tanker was formerly known as the Bella 1. Having failed to dock in Venezuela to load oil, it evaded the US blockade of sanctioned vessels and steamed into the Atlantic in December, with its crew repelling US attempts to seize it. Reports suggest the tanker's crew changed the vessel's designation to 'Marinera' and painted a Russian flag on its hull in an effort to claim Moscow's protection.
US/INDIA (BBG): Trump Says Modi Unhappy Over Tariffs as India Cuts Russian Oil
US President Donald Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was unhappy with him due to Washington’s high tariffs on the South Asian nation, the latest sign of continued strain between the two countries. “I have a very good relationship with him, but he is not that happy with me because they are paying a lot of tariffs,” Trump told a gathering of Republicans in Washington on Tuesday, adding that India’s buying of Russian oil “has reduced substantially.”
UKRAINE (MNI): UK & France Commit Peacekeepers & Witkoff Talks Up Sec. Guarantees
Following a meeting of the 'Coalition of the Willing' in Paris on 6 Jan, France and the UK have formally committed to sending troops to Ukraine in the event of a peace deal. Those 35 countries in the coalition have all ostensibly pledged readiness to send troops as part of a peacekeeping force. Nevertheless, the declaration of intent signed by French President Emmanuel Macron and UK PM Sir Keir Starmer is the most concrete security guarantee made by any of Ukraine's western partners to date.
CHINA/JAPAN (BBG): China Escalates Feud With Japan, Probes Chipmaking Material
China started an anti-dumping probe into a key chipmaking material from Japan, escalating the dispute between Asia’s largest economies shortly after Tokyo officials rebuked Beijing over potentially wide-ranging export controls. Dichlorosilane, the material being investigated, is mainly used in thin films needed to produce logic, memory, analog and other types of chips, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce. The investigation should be completed within a year from Wednesday, but may extend an additional six months, according to a statement from the ministry.
CHINA (RTRS): China Vanke Wins Nod From Lenders to Defer Interest Payments, Sources Say
China Vanke has struck a deal with domestic lenders to defer loan interest payments to September, two sources with knowledge of the matter said, as the state-backed developer scrambles to avoid a default in the crisis-hit property sector. The lenders, including Bank of China, have agreed to allow cash-strapped Vanke to make annual interest payments instead of quarterly, and defer all such dues in the coming months to September, said the sources.
COLOMBIA (MNI): President Petro Calls for Nationwide Rally to Defend National Sovereignty
Headlines crossing the wires referring to the Colombian President’s social media posts overnight, calling on the country to rally in defence of the President and national sovereignty. “The entire government leadership is meeting to show their unity in defence of the president and the sacred principle of national sovereignty”, adding that “In anti-narcotics policy, there is ironclad unity.” Petro states that on Thursday, he expects citizens in all the public squares to gather in multitude to defend national sovereignty.
DATA
EUROZONE DATA (MNI): Unrounded HICP Close to MNI Tracking
- EUROZONE DEC FLASH HICP 2.0% Y/Y (EXP 2.0%, TRK 1.9%, NOV 2.1%)
- EUROZONE DEC FLASH CORE HICP 2.3% Y/Y (MNI MED 2.4%, NOV 2.4%)
- EUROZONE DEC FLASH SERVICES HICP 3.4% Y/Y (MNI MED 3.5%, NOV 3.5%)
Headline was low on the 2dp: 1.96% Y/Y - which is close to the MNI tracking of 1.92% Y/Y. Looking at the expectations for HICP (prior to much of the national data): services 3.38% Y/Y (around a tenth lower than the MNI median), NEIG also just over a tenth lower at 0.36%Y/Y, energy was around 4 tenths softer than expected at -1.91% Y/Y (-0.49% prior). Offsetting some of this weakness was: unprocessed food at 4.21% Y/Y (3.18% Y/Y prior) pushed FAT a tenth higher than expected to 2.59% Y/Y (2.5% exp, 2.4% Nov).
GERMANY DATA (MNI): Retail Sales Overall Disappoint in November
German November retail sales surprised to the downside, although there was an upward revision of the October data. The full picture on German retailers' Christmas business will only be known following December data but survey evidence points towards contained weakness. Retail sales volumes were -0.6% M/M (cons +0.2%) in November on a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis after a 0.3% increase (initial -0.3% but a revision to 0.1% was already known) in October. For 2025 as a whole, Destatis estimates a solid 2.4% real gain vs 2024.
GERMANY DATA (MNI): First Expansionary Construction PMI in Almost Four Years
The German construction PMI registered a 45-month high of 50.3 in December, up from 45.2 in November. This was the first expansionary reading in almost four years, according to HCOB, and helped push the Eurozone-wide construction PMI up to 47.4 (vs 45.4 prior). The rise was driven by the civil engineering sector, which could signal an early tailwind from the Government's infrastructure spending plans. This series, alongside hard production/construction data, will be key to monitor in the coming months.
FRANCE DATA (MNI): Consumer Confidence Up a Touch, Employment Outlook Improves Further
French December consumer confidence ticked up slightly to 90 (from 89 in November). The rise was driven mainly by improved views on the previous 12 months, while forward-looking subcomponents saw more mixed moves. The outlook for consumer prices was a touch higher, while the employment outlook improved further. Unrounded, the index rose 0.5ppt to 89.6, partially muting the headline rise.
UK DATA (MNI): Construction PMI Still Remains Around the 40 Area
- UK DEC CONSTRUCTION PMI 40.1 (42.3 EXP, 39.4 NOV)
The construction PMI still pointing to subdued employment in the sector and also noting that input cost inflation was at a 14-month low. From the press release: "Mirroring the trend for business activity in December, construction companies recorded relatively sharp reductions in employment and input buying. However, the rates of decline moderated since November, which was partly attributed to improved projections for workloads in the year ahead. "
SWEDEN DATA (MNI): Services and Composite PMIs Comfortably Expansionary to End '25
The Swedish services PMI eased to 56.7 in December from 59.2 prior, but remains comfortably in expansionary territory. That left the composite PMI at 56.3 (vs 57.9 prior). The composite PMI generally provides a more optimistic signal than the Economic Tendency indicator, potentially because the latter also includes consumer confidence. However, both surveys now signal growing economic activity, supporting Riksbank and market expectations for a continued recovery in GDP growth through 2026.
CHINA DATA (MNI): PBOC Continues Gold Purchases in December
MNI (Beijing) The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for a 14th consecutive month, while foreign exchange reserves recorded month-on-month growth in December, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said on Wednesday. China's gold reserves stood at 74.15 million ounces at the end of December, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the previous month. As of the end of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves totaled USD3.3579 trillion, rising by USD11.5 billion, or 0.34%, compared to the end of November.
JAPAN DATA (MNI): Q3 Output Gap Hits 22nd Negative Figure - BOJ
Japan’s output gap was estimated at -0.35% in Q3, narrowing from -0.40% in Q2 but remaining in negative territory for the 22nd consecutive quarter, Bank of Japan data released Wednesday showed, suggesting that upward pressure on prices continues with a lag, though the pace remains slow. The BOJ’s estimate, based on capital and labour stocks, is smaller than the Cabinet Office’s latest estimate of -0.2% in Q3, compared with +0.6% in Q2. The Cabinet Office calculation is based solely on revised second preliminary Q3 GDP data, which showed a 0.6% q/q contraction, or an annualised rate of -2.3%.
AUSTRALIA DATA (MNI): Aussie CPI Moderates Over November to 3.4% Y/Y
Australia’s November CPI rose 3.4% year on year, down from 3.8% in October and 20 basis points below market expectations, while remaining flat on a month-on-month basis, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed Wednesday. Trimmed mean eased 10bp to 3.2%, in line with expectations, and rose 0.3% m/m. The largest contributors to annual inflation over the past 12 months were housing (+5.2%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.3%), and transport (+2.7%).
AUSTRALIA DATA (MNI): Multi-Dwellings Jump But House Approvals Remain Soft
- AUSTRALIA NOV BUILDING APPROVALS +15.2% M/M, +20.2% Y/Y
The number of building approvals in November jumped 15.2% m/m after falling 6.1% m/m driven by the volatile multi-dwelling component. Private houses rose 1.3% m/m after falling 1.3% in October but were still up only 3.2% y/y. They appear to be recovering from the Q2/Q3 2025 dip. Momentum is picking up across both houses and apartments but the former is still soft. Strong demand and supply shortages have driven home prices higher. Approvals have struggled to improve as needed. A gradual uptrend in the total has been due to the non-house component but it remains 20% below the 2021 peak.
FOREX: AUDUSD Extends Bull Wave Despite Cautious Sentiment and CPI
- Sentiment across crude/equity markets has been dented on Wednesday, amid President Trump announcing Venezuela oil shipments as well as growing concerns about US intentions regarding Greenland. This has filtered through to a moderately higher JPY and lower NOK, although aggregate moves have remained very contained.
- Despite the cautious tone, AUDUSD extended its recent bullish wave overnight, reaching a high of 0.6767 with topside levels of 0.6795 and 0.6858 the next chart points of note. This comes in the aftermath of Australian CPI data for November, in which underlying momentum remained elevated despite headline moving in the right direction for the RBA. Demand for AUD upside in options also persists, providing further evidence that markets are looking through any softness in the inflation data.
- For the Euro, the declaration of intent for Ukraine security guarantees signed by French President Macron and UK PM Starmer, as well as Eurozone HICP coming in marginally below consensus didn't move the needle. Commitments from the biggest military spenders in Europe are notable, but will mean little without continued US backing, and more material inflation downside would be needed over the coming months to put any ECB cut discussions back on the table again.
- A strong recovery from Monday’s low print in EURUSD highlights a potential reversal - the price pattern on Jan 5 is a bullish long legged doji candle. It is a bullish reversal pattern and highlights a key short-term support at 1.1659, the Jan 5 low.
- MBA mortgage applications, ADP employment change, ISM Services, JOLTS, and durable goods orders constitute today's heavy data calendar. This comes ahead of Friday's December NFP, in which a material downside would be needed to put even talks about a January FOMC cut on the table again.
EGBS: German Curve Bull Flattens, Broadly Looking Through Soft Bund Auction
The German curve has bull flattened, initially taking cues from yesterday’s lower-than-expected German inflation data and post-settlement pullback in oil futures, but more recently following Gilts.
- 5s30s is down 2.6bps at 102.9bps. Meanwhile, 10-year yields are below 2.80% for the first time since early December. Zooming out, trendline support drawn from the August 2022 low remains intact.
- Germany sold E6bln of the new 10-year 2.90% Feb-36 Bund. Results were a little soft – but not terrible. Remember that as this is a launch, it is the largest 10-year Bund auction since July at E6.0bln and some of the smaller auctions in October saw far fewer bids. Meanwhile, Belgium is launching a new 10-year OLO via syndication today.
- Bund futures are +51 ticks at 128.19, off highs of 128.24 following the Bund auction. Futures have pushed through the 20-day EMA, undermining the bear theme and exposing the 50-day EMA at 128.34.
- 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are little changed to 1bp wider, with SPGBs and PGBs underperforming.
- Eurozone flash December headline HICP was 1.96% Y/Y, a little above MNI’s tracking but still on the low-side of the 2.0% rounded consensus. Meanwhile, the more important core reading was a tenth below consensus at 2.29%.
- This afternoon’s focus turns to US ADP and JOLTS data, alongside the ISM services index.
Figure 2: 10-Year Bund Yields
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P
GILTS: Resistance Broken in Futures, Trend Support Broken in 10s, Curve Flattens
The rally stemming from yesterday’s German CPI data and ongoing geopolitical risks extends further.
- Futures have broken resistance at the November 27 top (91.93), trading as high as 92.05. Next level of upside interest noted at the November 12 high (92.31).
- Yields 2.5-7.5bp lower.
- 2-Year yields have registered the lowest level seen since August ’24.
- 10-Year yields have broken uptrend support drawn off the late ’21 lows (admittedly after several adjustments being made for similar breaches during ’25), which switches focus to the cluster of October and November lows (basing at 4.369%).
- The GBP4.25bln auction of the 4.125% Mar-31 gilt passed smoothly.
- BoE-dated OIS moves to price 43bp of easing through year-end vs. 40.5bp late yesterday.
- SONIA futures 0.5-5.5 firmer, strip flattens. SFIH6/Z6 moves to fresh cycle lows, nearing the May ’24 base (-27.5).
- The latest BoE DMP survey will be released tomorrow.
- As a reminder, we think that progress on headline CPI and official labour market data will not be sufficient to justify the next BoE rate cut, at least not in isolation. It is likely that the Bank will also need to see progress on inflation expectations data as well as further DMP prints and a non-adverse result from the Agents' Pay Survey.
Figure 3: 10-Year Gilt Yield (%)
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA (bp) |
Feb-26 | 3.712 | -1.3 |
Mar-26 | 3.619 | -10.6 |
Apr-26 | 3.509 | -21.6 |
Jun-26 | 3.441 | -28.5 |
Jul-26 | 3.368 | -35.8 |
Sep-26 | 3.335 | -39.1 |
Nov-26 | 3.300 | -42.5 |
Dec-26 | 3.293 | -43.2 |
EQUITIES: Eurostoxx 50 Futures Remain Close to 6000.00 Handle
A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and a fresh cycle high this week, reinforces the bull theme and confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the 6000.00 handle next. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is at 5795.81, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective. The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. A key near-term support has been defined at 6771.50, the Dec 18 low. Clearance of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement and would also highlight a possible short-term reversal. For bulls, sights are on key resistance at 7014.00, the Oct 30 high. A move through this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 556.1 pts or -1.06% at 51961.98 and the TOPIX ended 27.1 pts lower or -0.77% at 3511.34.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 2.105 pts or +0.05% at 4085.772 and the HANG SENG ended 251.5 pts lower or -0.94% at 26458.95.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 111.83 pts or +0.45% at 25003.44, FTSE 100 lower by 53.19 pts or -0.53% at 10069.36, CAC 40 down 19.9 pts or -0.24% at 8217.53 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 17.21 pts or -0.29% at 5914.58.
- Dow Jones mini up 22 pts or +0.04% at 49742, S&P 500 mini down 8.75 pts or -0.13% at 6979, NASDAQ mini down 69 pts or -0.27% at 25753.
Time: 10:00 GMT
COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Reapproaching December's Cycle Lows
The trend theme in WTI futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and recent gains appear to have been corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the bear leg would signal scope for a move towards $53.77, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is $61.25, the Oct 24 high. First resistance is at $58.41, the 50- day EMA. The trend structure in Gold is bullish and a sharp sell-off late December appears corrective - for now. The trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind. First support at $4351.9, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of the average would expose the 50-day EMA at $4215.8. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open $4578.3, a Fibonacci projection.
- WTI Crude down $0.76 or -1.33% at $56.37
- Natural Gas up $0.15 or +4.51% at $3.5
- Gold spot down $30.62 or -0.68% at $4464.9
- Copper down $6.25 or -1.03% at $599.6
- Silver down $1.75 or -2.15% at $79.5755
- Platinum down $137.16 or -5.61% at $2310.42
Time: 10:00 GMT
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 07/01/2026 | 1200/0700 | ** |  US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 07/01/2026 | 1315/0815 | *** | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 07/01/2026 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 07/01/2026 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | Factory New Orders |
| 07/01/2026 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS Jobs Opening Level |
| 07/01/2026 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS Quits Rate |
| 07/01/2026 | 1500/1000 | * |  CA | Ivey PMI |
| 07/01/2026 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | US DOE Petroleum Supply |
| 07/01/2026 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 07/01/2026 | 2110/1610 | US | Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman | |
| 08/01/2026 | 2330/0830 | ** |  JP | Average Wages (p) |
| 08/01/2026 | 0030/1130 | ** |  AU | Trade Balance |
| 08/01/2026 | 0700/0800 | ** |  DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 08/01/2026 | 0700/0800 | *** |  SE | Flash Inflation Report |
| 08/01/2026 | 0730/0830 | *** |  CH | CPI |
| 08/01/2026 | 0745/0845 | * |  FR | Foreign Trade |
| 08/01/2026 | 0830/0930 |  EU | ECB de Guindos Fireside Chat at Next Spain | |
| 08/01/2026 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 08/01/2026 | 0930/0930 |  GB | BOE Decision Maker Panel data | |
| 08/01/2026 | 1000/1100 | * | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 08/01/2026 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | EZ PPI |
| 08/01/2026 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | EZ Unemployment |
| 08/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 08/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 08/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 08/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Trade Balance |
| 08/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity |
| 08/01/2026 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 08/01/2026 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 08/01/2026 | 1600/1100 | ** | US | NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations |
| 08/01/2026 | 1630/1130 | ** | US | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 08/01/2026 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 08/01/2026 | 2000/1500 | * | US | Consumer Credit |
| 09/01/2026 | 2330/0830 | ** | JP | Household spending |
