GERMAN DATA: Retail Sales Overall Disappoint In November

• RES 4: 184.34 2.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 3: 183.90 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 2: 183.07 2.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing 
• RES 1: 182.01 High Nov 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 181.06 @ 07:17 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 180.17 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 178.98/178.18 Low Nov 14 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 177.15 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 175.87 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low

EURJPY is in consolidation mode and the latest pause in the trend appears to be a flag formation - a trend continuation signal that reinforces the bull theme. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation of the trend would signal scope for a climb towards 184.00, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. First key support lies at 180.17, the 20-day EMA.

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 156.58/157.89 High Nov 28 / 20 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 155.19 @ 07:12 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 154.35 Low Dec 5 
• SUP 2: 153.41 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 152.82 Low Nov 7 
• SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29 

Recent weakness in USDJPY is considered corrective. The deeper retracement has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. An extension lower would expose the 50-day EMA at 153.49 and the next important support. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 158.00.

• German industrial production was stronger than expected in October, even considering the downward September revision.
• "The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that production was 1.5% lower in the period from August 2025 to October 2025 than in the previous three months [...] In October 2025, production in industry excluding energy and construction was up 1.5% [M/M] from September 2025 after seasonal and calendar adjustment."Destatis comments.
• On drivers within manufacturing (excl. energy and constr): "increases registered in the manufacture of machinery and equipment (+2.8%) and in the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (+3.9%) also made a significant contribution to the overall result. By contrast, the decline in production in the automotive industry (-1.3%), which is an important sector, had a negative impact"
• An increase in construction (+3.3% M/M) follows strong increases in dwelling approvals over the last couple of months in Germany which may be starting to filter through.
• Sentiment in German industry has faded most recently, with both the Manufacturing PMI and IFO index slightly lower in their December readings than in November. The IFO saw some reduction the difference between its expectations and current conditions subreadings - the spread between these remains notable, though.