MNI US OPEN - Santa Rally Comes for Gold, Silver

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• FED'S HAMMACK WARY OF RATE CUT
• US INTEL INDICATES PUTIN HAS NOT ABANDONED RECLAIMING FORMER SOVIET STATES
• CHINA HITS EU WITH DAIRY IMPORT DUTIES

Figure 1: Santa rally comes for Gold, Silver

Source: MNI / Bloomberg Finance L.P.

NEWS

FED (WSJ): Hammack Wary of Rate Cut, Gets Vote Next Year
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said she doesn't see any need to change interest rates for several months after the central bank cut rates at its last three meetings. Hammack has opposed recent rate cuts because she is more worried about elevated inflation than the potential labor-market fragility that prompted officials to lower rates by a cumulative 0.75-point over the past several months. Hammack wasn't a voting member on the rate-setting committee this year but will become a voter next year.

US/VENEZUELA (BBG): US Pursuit of Third Oil Tanker Intensifies Venezuela Blockade
The US Coast Guard’s pursuit of a third oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela has intensified a blockade that the Trump administration hopes will cut off a vital economic lifeline and isolate the government of President Nicolás Maduro. US forces chased the US-sanctioned Bella 1 on Sunday as it was en route to Venezuela. They boarded Centuries, a ship owned by a Hong Kong-based entity, on Saturday — the first non-sanctioned vessel to be targeted. Another very large crude carrier, the Skipper, was intercepted on Dec. 10.

US/UKRAINE (BBG): US, Ukraine Held ‘Constructive’ Florida Talks, Witkoff Says
US special envoy Steve Witkoff said Trump administration officials held “productive and constructive” meetings with Ukrainian and European counterparts in Florida as part of efforts to end Russia’s war. The talks included US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, top Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov and other European security advisers, Witkoff said in a post on X. 

RUSSIA (RTRS): US intelligence indicates Putin's war aims in Ukraine are unchanged
U.S. intelligence reports continue to warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin has not abandoned his aims of capturing all of Ukraine and reclaiming parts of Europe that belonged to the former Soviet empire, six sources familiar with U.S. intelligence said, even as negotiators seek an end to the war that would leave Russia with far less territory.

US (WaPo): Cruz Considering Run For GOP Presidential Nomination In '28:
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) is considering another run for the US presidency in 2028. If he does run, it would mark his second attempt to win the Republican presidential nomination, after coming in second place behind Donald Trump in 2016. WaPo reports that "Cruz has in recent months positioned himself as a loud voice for a more traditional, hawkish Republican foreign policy. [...] A White House run would be politically risky for Cruz, 55, putting him on course to collide with Vice President JD Vance, who many Republicans expect to enter the 2028 race. 

RUSSIA/UKRAINE (The Times): Russian general killed by Moscow car bomb
Lieutenant General Fanil Sarvarov was killed as he pulled out of a parking space in a residential district of southern Moscow at 6.55am local time, the State Investigative Committee said. It published a video showing his badly damaged vehicle, with blood visible on the driver’s seat. No other casualties were reported.

EU/CHINA (BBG): China Hits EU Dairy Imports With Hefty Duties After Probe
China levied initial duties on some dairy imports from the European Union following an anti-subsidy probe, the latest move in a tit-for-tat trade dispute with the bloc. In a preliminary decision, China said it will impose duties of up to 43% on some EU dairy products after finding they were subsidized, according to the Commerce Ministry. 

THAILAND/CAMBODIA (BBG): Cambodia, Thailand to Discuss New Ceasefire Terms to End Clashes
Cambodia and Thailand agreed to discuss conditions for a ceasefire later this week, after foreign ministers from Southeast Asian nations met in Kuala Lumpur in a fresh effort to end deadly border clashes between the two neighbors. 

UK (MNI): UK Household Savings Ratio Falls in Q3
UK households’ saving ratio stood at a preliminary 9.5% in Q3, the lowest since Q2 2024 and down from 10.2% in the three months to June, the Office for National Statistics said on Monday.

CHINA (MNI): LPR Steady As PBOC Cautious Despite Headwinds
The People’s Bank of China’s benchmark loan rate held steady for a seventh consecutive month on Monday, but economists and traders expect further easing in the first quarter as economic headwinds hit.

CHINA (MNI): PBOC Allows Small Debtors To Repair Credit Status
The People’s Bank of China will permit one-time credit repair measures for individuals with small overdue amounts, officials told reporters on Monday. Information on personal overdue debts incurred between Jan 1, 2020 and Dec 31, 2025 not exceeding CNY10,000 will not be displayed in the Financial Credit Information Basic Database if the individual makes full payments by March 31, 2026, the PBOC said on its website on Monday, explaining that the move aims partly to address the effects of the Covid pandemic.

DATA

• MNI: UK Q3 GDP +0.1% Q/Q, +1.3% Y/Y
• UK Q3 CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE GBP -12.1 BLN

FOREX: USD Index Softer, Helping Flatter Gold Rally

• The US dollar is the main underperformer Monday, although the USD Index is holding within Friday's range while attention was on gold trading firmly to fresh all-time highs. Geopolitics remain in focus for FX markets with the US oil blockade of Venezuela continuing and US-European-Ukraine-Russia talks ended without a breakthrough with special envoy Witkoff saying that they were “productive and constructive".
• Antipodean currencies outperform despite mixed risk sentiment on Monday. NZDUSD hovering around Thursday's 0.5788 high as markets continue to pare expectations for 2026 RBNZ tightening. More important resistance stands at 0.5831, the Dec 11 high.
• AUDUSD meanwhile remains in a bullish trend structure ahead of tomorrow's RBA minutes. The minutes will be scrutinised for more information around the board's degree of concern about upside inflation risks as well as how much this translates to the RBA's stance being skewed to the upside. Resistance stands at the 0.6686 December 10 high.
• GBPUSD narrows the gap to last week's 1.3456 highs on the back of the weaker dollar, while UK Q3 GDP came in as expected this morning. A break higher would strengthen the ongoing bull theme in GBPUSD and open 1.3527, the Oct 1 high. Initial firm support is 1.3300, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average would highlight a possible reversal.

BONDS: Off Lows With Year-To-Date Highs In German 10-Year Yields Intact

Bearish momentum extended in Asia/early European trade, alongside weakness in JGBs, an uptick in oil and some typically hawkish Fedspeak from Hammack.

• Bund yields moved above 2.90% for the first time since March, but the move stalled before testing year-to-date highs (2.940%).
• Bonds have recovered from lows in the time since. German 10s last ~2.90%, yield flat to +1bp across the curve.
• Bund futures based at 126.75, with key support at the March low on a continuation chart (126.53).
• Resistance in the contract layered in at 127.24, followed by 127.52 & 127.55.
• The 10-year OAT/Bund spread trades 1bp tighter around 70.5bp. 70bp continues to limit downside. The failure to pass a budget may keep this support intact into the start of next year.
• Comments from the French Minister for European Affairs, flagging his confidence that a ’26 Budget will be agreed upon after negotiations resume in January, may be providing some modest support, but this isn’t really a gamechanger.
• ECB pricing shows ~6bp of tightening through ‘26. Comments from ECB Governing Council member Kazimir reaffirmed the Bank’s “comfortable position” albeit little leaning a little dovish on the long-term growth outlook.
• Gilts take cues from abroad. Futures based at 90.65 before recovering to 90.80.
• Support and resistance of note located at 90.50 & 91.93, respectively. Post-BoE price action tilts focus back to support levels.
• Gilt yields 1.5bp lower to 0.5bp higher, curve twist steepens. Month-to-date highs intact/untested across the curve.
• BoE-dated OIS prices ~38bp of easing through ’26, ~1.5bp more dovish on the day.

EQUITIES: Pullback Exposes S/T Bear Threat

A pullback in S&P E-Minis has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This strengthens a short-term bear threat and signals scope for a deeper retracement of the recent bull phase between Nov 21 - Dec 11. A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. The first key support to watch lies at 5681.57, the 50-day EMA.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 895.18 pts or +1.81% at 50402.39 and the TOPIX ended 21.51 pts higher or +0.64% at 3405.17.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 26.916 pts or +0.69% at 3917.364 and the HANG SENG ended 111.24 pts higher or +0.43% at 25801.77.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 3.56 pts or -0.01% at 24289.87, FTSE 100 lower by 42.18 pts or -0.43% at 9855.35, CAC 40 down 28.24 pts or -0.35% at 8124.48 and EuroStoxx 50 down 5.16 pts or -0.09% at 5756.17.
• Dow Jones mini up 52 pts or +0.11% at 48513, S&P 500 mini up 24 pts or +0.35% at 6908, NASDAQ mini up 140.75 pts or +0.55% at 25716.

COMMODITIES: Trend Structure in Gold Goes From Strength to Strength

The trend structure in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and today’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. The break higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. The trend condition in WTI futures remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.

• WTI Crude up $0.54 or +0.96% at $57.08
• Natural Gas up $0.09 or +2.28% at $4.079
• Gold spot up $75.24 or +1.73% at $4414.08
• Copper up $0.3 or +0.05% at $551
• Silver up $1.95 or +2.9% at $69.049
• Platinum up $91.47 or +4.63% at $2065

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
22/12/2025	1330/0830	*	CA	Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index
22/12/2025	1330/0830	**	US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
22/12/2025	1630/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
22/12/2025	1630/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
22/12/2025	1800/1300	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note
23/12/2025	0700/0800	**	SE	PPI
23/12/2025	0700/0800	**	DE	Import/Export Prices
23/12/2025	0800/0900	**	ES	PPI
23/12/2025	0800/0900	***	ES	GDP (f)
23/12/2025	1200/0700	**	BR	Brazil Preliminary CPI
23/12/2025	1330/0830	***	CA	Gross Domestic Product by Industry
23/12/2025	1330/0830	**	US	Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index
23/12/2025	1330/0830	***	US	GDP / PCE Quarterly
23/12/2025	1330/0830	***	US	GDP / PCE Quarterly
23/12/2025	1330/0830	**	US	Durable Goods New Orders
23/12/2025	1330/0830	**	US	Durable Goods New Orders
23/12/2025	1355/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
23/12/2025	1415/0915	***	US	Industrial Production
23/12/2025	1500/1000	**	US	Richmond Fed Survey
23/12/2025	1630/1130	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill
23/12/2025	1800/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
23/12/2025	1800/1300	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note
23/12/2025	1800/1300	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note
23/12/2025	1830/1330		CA	Bank of Canada meeting minutes