FED (MNI): Fed Governor Will Likely Be In Temp Position - Trump
President Donald Trump on Wednesday said his pick to replace outgoing Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler will likely be in a temporary position, adding that the announcement will come in coming days.
FED (MNI): Fed Likely Needs To Cut In Coming Months - Daly
The Federal Reserve will likely need to lower interest rates "in the coming months" to prevent further labor market weakening while still putting downward pressure on inflation, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Wednesday.
GLOBAL TRADE (CNBC): Trump’s ‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs Come Into Effect, Hitting Dozens Of U.S. Trading Partners
U.S. President Donald Trump’s so-called “reciprocal” tariffs took effect on Thursday, imposing higher duties on many of the country’s trading partners’ exports to the U.S.
GLOBAL TRADE (RTRS): Trump Says U.S. To Levy 100% Tariff On Imported Chips, But Some Firms Exempt
President Donald Trump said the United States will impose a tariff of about 100% on imports of semiconductors but offered up a big exemption - it will not apply to companies that are manufacturing in the U.S. or have committed to do so.
GLOBAL TRADE (Nikkei): Apple Suppliers Bet On Tariff Carve-Out For India-Made Iphones: Sources
Apple suppliers are proceeding with their plans to mass produce the upcoming iPhone in India, as they believe the device will be exempt from the 50% tariff rate that U.S. President Donald Trump has slapped on the country, Nikkei Asia has learned.
U.S. (RTRS): Trump Met Citi, BofA CEOs To Discuss Plans For Fannie And Freddie, Sources Say
U.S. President Donald Trump met the CEOs of Citigroup and Bank of America Wednesday to discuss the administration's plans to privatize U.S. mortgage financing companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, according to two sources familiar with the situation.
RUSSIA (Sky News): Donald Trump And Vladimir Putin Agree To Meet In 'Coming Days', Kremlin Aide Says
An agreement has been reached for Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to meet "in the coming days", a Kremlin aide has said.
BOE (MNI): MNI Preview: August 2025: Vote Split and QT Backdrop Focus
This week’s MPC meeting will be a major surprise if there is not a 25bp cut. The focus will instead be on the vote split, the tone of the press conference, any changes to assumptions in the scenarios and any signalling ahead of September’s QT decision. We look at all of these aspects in detail as well as summarising over 20 sell side reports and rounding up analyst views.
JAPAN (BBG): Japan, U.S. at Odds Over Tariff Deal as 15% Levy Takes Effect
A fresh discrepancy in interpretations of the US-Japan trade deal came to the fore on Thursday, as Japan’s chief negotiator visits Washington to press for follow-through on a pledge to cut a levy on car imports to 15%.
BOJ (MNI): Ex-BOJ Sakurai Sees Rate Hike As Early As Dec
A former BOJ board member shares his policy rate outlook -- on MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.
SOUTH KOREA (RTRS): South Korea Says Samsung, SK Hynix Will Not Be Subject To 100% U.S. Chip Tariffs
South Korea's top trade envoy Yeo Han-koo said on Thursday that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will not be subject to 100% U.S. tariffs on chips.
BOK (Korea Herald): BOK Chief: U.S. Tariff Deal Eases Rate Pressure
Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong said Thursday that the recent Korea-US tariff agreement has eased pressure on the central bank’s policy outlook ahead of its next rate-setting meeting later this month.
BRAZIL (RTRS): 'I Won't Humiliate Myself': Brazil's President Sees No Point In Tariff Talks With Trump
As U.S. tariffs on Brazilian goods jumped to 50% on Wednesday, Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva told Reuters in an interview that he saw no room for direct talks now with U.S. President Donald Trump that would likely be a "humiliation."
EQUITIES (RTRS): Trump Announces $100 Billion New Investment Pledge From Apple
President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that Apple, opens new tab will invest an additional $100 billion in the United States, a move that could help it sidestep potential tariffs on iPhones.
GLOBAL TRADE/EQUITIES (BBG): TSMC Hits Record; Taiwan Says Tech Giant Exempt From US Tariffs
Taiwan said its leading chip manufacturer will not have to pay a 100% tariff on sales to the US, helping drive Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. shares to a record.
GLOBAL TRADE/EQUITIES (RTRS): Maersk Boosts Profit Outlook As Container Demand Defies Trade Fears
A.P. Moller-Maersk on Thursday raised its full-year profit forecast as demand for ocean container freight has defied fears of a hit from trade disputes, although the shipper warned demand was likely to ease in the second half of the year.
DATA
CHINA DATA (MNI): China's Jul Exports Up 7.2%, Imports Up 4.1%
China's exports increased 7.2% y/y in July, while imports rose 4.1%, data released by China Customs showed on Thursday.
CHINA (MNI): China's Forex Reserves Down USD25.2 Billion In July
China's foreign exchange reserves fell by USD25.2 billion in July, weighed by a rising U.S. dollar index rose and global financial asset price fluctuations, data by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed on Thursday.
GERMAN DATA (MNI): June Industrial Production Weaker Than Expected
June industrial production was weaker than expected on first sight. Below consensus and a negative revision. "The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that production in the 2nd quarter of 2025 declined by 1.0% and thus also dropped to the same low level it last reached in the first half of 2020."
GERMAN DATA (MNI): Trade Data See Scope For Negative Q2 GDP Revisions On U.S. Drag
The German trade surplus decreased in June to E14.9bln (seasonally-adjusted, vs E17.3bln cons; E18.5bln prior), the second lowest monthly level since May 2023. The decrease came as an import jump of 4.2% M/M (0.8% cons; -3.9% prior) outpaced a 0.8% M/M move in exports (0.4% cons; -1.4% prior), with those swings amplified by trade with the US. We note potential for a heavily caveated large drag from goods trade to real GDP in Q2, of note as net exports were not mentioned as a negative driver in the Destatis flash release when real GDP growth was weak at -0.1% Q/Q.
SWEDEN DATA (MNI): Only Slight Downward Surprise To July CPIF ex-energy
On an unrounded basis, CPIF ex-energy was 3.15% Y/Y in July, so only just rounding down to 3.1% Y/Y. A reminder that the Riksbank projected July CPIF ex-energy at 2.84% Y/Y in the June MPR, but this is a stale forecast after June surprised 4 tenths to the upside.
NEW ZEALAND DATA (MNI): Near-Term NZ Inflation Expectations Ease
New Zealand’s near-term inflation expectations eased slightly in the third quarter while longer-term views ticked up, according to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s latest Survey of Expectations.
MARKETS
FOREX: USD Softer Again; Trump/Putin Talks Inject Dose of Risk
After a bearish close Wednesday, the USD is softer again on the back of a further retracement of the US curve. Risk appetite also saw a boost as headlines confirmed a meeting set between Russian President Putin and US President Trump in the coming days. While the location is yet to be confirmed - the ceasefire demands on Moscow will undoubtedly be a topic of conversation. As a result, the Friday deadline for Russia has presumably been paused - however secondary sanctions on India and other select countries are expected to proceed.
EUR/USD edged higher still early Thursday, further clearing the post-NFP high in the process. This keeps the recovery off the late July pullback low intact, and works against the bearish backdrop. The break of firm resistance into 1.1607, the 20-day EMA, is signaling greater odds of a further reversal higher.
The BoE rate decision takes focus going forward, with GBP/USD again resilient. In particular, the vote split among the MPC will be of interest. Markets expect the committee to opt for a 25bps rate cut today, split down the lines of 2-5-2 (50bps cut, 25bps cut, unch) as the modal consensus. We flag that the baseline projections may become less useful as a communication tool going forward - and as such, less market relevant. EUR/GBP remains in a nascent uptrend, evident in the recovery from last Thursday's low. Key resistance and the bull trigger remains at 0.8769, the Jul 27 high.
Focus elsewhere Thursday is on US weekly jobless claims and unit labor costs. Fed's Bostic is also due to be addressing monetary policy shortly after the BoE rate decision, while POTUS Trump is set to make remarks after the cash equity close.
BONDS: EGBs Bid On Supply Takeup, Inflation Outlook; Gilts Coil Into BoE
The imposition of U.S. President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and smooth digestion of both French & Spanish supply has provided support for bonds.
Also note that EUR zero coupon spreads have moved lower since the Kremlin pointed to a Trump-Putin meeting over the coming days, with a positive outcome there potentially reducing some global inflationary pressure stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Still, Bund futures trade within yesterday’s range. Initial support and resistance located at 128.84 & 130.60, respectively.
German yields are 1-2bp lower across the curve, flattening.
Firmer equities, following the Trump-Putin meeting headlines, have countered any spread widening impetus in EGBs, with major spreads little changed to a touch tighter on the day, as the periphery outperforms at the margin.
Gilt futures back to unchanged levels as Bunds firm, tight ranges in play ahead of the BoE decision.
Initial support and resistance in the contract located at 20-day EMA (91.86) and August 5 high (92.84), respectively. Recent bullish theme intact.
Yields flat to 1.5bp lower, curve flatter.
A 25bp cut today is over 90% priced, with 49bp of cumulative easing showing through tear-end.
Assuming a 25bp cut is delivered today, the focus will quickly move to the vote split, the tone of the press conference, any changes to assumptions in the scenarios and any signalling ahead of September’s QT decision.
EQUITIES: E-mini S&P Recovering Well, But Still Short of Resistance
The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures faltered Friday, with short-term weakness resulting in a break of the bear trigger. Having shown below 5194.00, the Jun 23 low, the April 30 hi/lo range at 5078-5138 becomes the area of downside interest. E-mini S&P sold off sharply Friday on the back of the soft NFP print - pushing prices through mid-July lows in the process. Since that spell of weakness, price has recovered back above support at the 20-day EMA, at 6325.25.
Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 264.29 pts or +0.65% at 41059.15 and the TOPIX ended 21.35 pts higher or +0.72% at 2987.92.
Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 5.672 pts or +0.16% at 3639.667 and the HANG SENG ended 171 pts higher or +0.69% at 25081.63.
Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 241.09 pts or +1.01% at 24164.82, FTSE 100 lower by 24.86 pts or -0.27% at 9136.95, CAC 40 up 61.21 pts or +0.8% at 7696.92 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 49.87 pts or +0.95% at 5313.57. Dow Jones mini up 118 pts or +0.27% at 44433, S&P 500 mini up 35.25 pts or +0.55% at 6407, NASDAQ mini up 139.5 pts or +0.6% at 23566.
COMMODITIES: WTI Posts Bearish Daily Close
Gold benefited from the soft NFP print on Friday, returning prices toward the top-end of the recent range. This supports the view that short-term weakness is corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. WTI futures fell further Wednesday, keeping S/T momentum pointed lower. Support at the 50-day EMA has cracked, with the price closing below - a bearish signal. The clear break exposes $58.17, the May 30 low.
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