EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Figure 1: Japanese core CPI picks up pace in June

Source: MNI / Bloomberg Finance L.P.
NEWS
FED (MNI): Dovish Waller Doubles Down On July Cut, More Cuts This Year
In case missed late yesterday, Governor Waller (permanent voter, dove) clearly doubled down on his dovish stance, starting his speech with "My purpose this evening is to explain why I believe that the FOMC should reduce our policy rate by 25 basis points at our next meeting." It's not a new approach from Waller but continues to stand out along with Bowman amidst the Fed's independence being threatened by President Trump's call for 1% rates.
EU-RUSSIA (BBG): EU Imposes New Raft of Sanctions on Russia and Its Oil Trade
European Union states have approved a fresh sanctions package on Russia over its war against Ukraine including a revised oil price cap, new banking restrictions, and curbs on fuels made from Russian petroleum. The package, the bloc’s 18th since Moscow’s full scale invasion, will see about 20 more Russian banks cut off the international payments system SWIFT and face a full transaction ban, as well as restrictions imposed on Russian petroleum refined in third countries.
US-AUSTRALIA (BBG): Australia’s Treasurer Weighs Impact of Possible US Drug Tariff
Australia is evaluating the impact of potential US tariffs of 200% on pharmaceutical imports, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said, while reiterating that his nation’s subsidies for certain drugs are not up for negotiation. “We’re working through” how the potential tariff might work with the industry and “the potential consequences of pharmaceuticals being caught up in these escalating trade tensions”.
US (WaPo): White House Shares Diagnosis in Rare Acknowledgment of Trump’s Age
The White House on Thursday said that President Donald Trump has been diagnosed with a mild but chronic illness related to his age — a rare admission from one of the nation's oldest presidents who has long sought to project vigor. Trump has chronic venous insufficiency, the White House physician said in a memorandum, a condition in which the legs have trouble delivering blood back to the heart.
GERMANY (BBG): Merz Vows to Focus on Boosting Economy After Bumpy Start in Job
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz vowed to put a choppy start to his tenure behind him and focus on returning Europe’s biggest economy to meaningful growth. The conservative leader has had a turbulent couple of months since taking charge in early May, with a number of disputes already rumbling in his ruling coalition with the Social Democrats on issues ranging from welfare reforms to judicial appointments.
CHINA (BBG): Xi Questions Local Officials on EV, AI Plans in Rare Rebuke
President Xi Jinping questioned the need for local governments across China to crowd into the same emerging industries, a rare rebuke that reflects growing concerns about deflation at home and trade tensions abroad. “When it comes to launching new projects, it’s always the same few things: artificial intelligence, computing power, new-energy vehicles,” Xi said in a meeting in Beijing this week on urban development, according to a Thursday article on the front page of the People’s Daily.
CORPORATE (BBG): TSMC Calls FX ‘Big Uncertainty’, Vows Constant Review on Hedging
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. sees currency volatility as a “big uncertainty” to its margins and will constantly review hedging strategies to manage the impact, said Chief Financial Officer Wendell Huang. “Foreign-exchange rate is something that we cannot control, but there were instances before where it was not in our favor, but we managed to lean on other factors so that we are able to keep our profitability, and that’s what we are planning to do,” Huang said in an interview on Friday.
Japan's annual core consumer inflation rate decelerated to 3.3% y/y in June, from May’s 3.7%, marking 39 consecutive months above the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target, data released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed on Friday. Government subsidies contributed to a slowdown in energy prices, which rose 2.9% y/y compared to 8.1% in May and household durable goods, which increased 2.5% versus 3.8% previously.
BONDS: EGB & Gilt Yields A Little Higher, Support In Futures Intact
Slightly firmer oil prices and equities weigh on EGBs & gilts, with little in the way of market moving headline/data flow to note
FOREX: USD Index Tilts Lower Post Waller, But Consolidating Weekly Advance
EQUITIES: Stock Futures Strike New Record Highs
S&P E-Minis are trading higher today and this has resulted in a fresh cycle high. The climb confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Support to watch is 5281.00, the low on Jul 1 and 4. A clear break of this price point would strengthen a bearish threat.
COMMODITIES: Bearish WTI Theme Persists
Gold is unchanged. A bull cycle that started Jun 30, remains intact and the yellow metal is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains - for now. Note that medium-term trend conditions are bullish. A bearish tone in WTI futures remains intact and gains are considered corrective. The sharp reversal from the Jun 23 high continues to highlight scope for an extension lower.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 18/07/2025 | - | ECB Cipollone At G20 Meeting | ||
| 18/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Housing Starts | |
| 18/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Housing Starts | |
| 18/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers | |
| 18/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation | |
| 18/07/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly | |
| 18/07/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |