MNI RBA Review-Nov 2025: Inflation Persistence Key To Outlook

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

• The RBA Monetary Policy Board unanimously left rates at 3.6%, as was widely expected, and sounded generally cautious. With risks "in both directions" and the degree of restrictiveness difficult to assess, the Board doesn't have a stance. Neither a cut nor a hike were discussed.
• Staff trimmed mean projections were revised higher over the rest of 2025 and 2026 with the important 2q/2q annualised rate returning to 3% in Q1 and 2.6% in Q4, which may allow a rate cut from May if this eventuates.
• Decisions remain highly data dependent and will be made on a "meeting-by-meeting basis".
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is showing a 25bp rate cut in December at a 10% probability, with a cumulative 18bps of easing priced by mid-2026.